Citi says CSL shares can rise almost 40%

Big returns could be on offer with this beaten down biotherapeutics giant's shares.

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CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) shares are having another tough session.

In afternoon trade, the biotherapeutics company's shares are down 2% to $234.43.

This means its shares are now down approximately 22% over the last six months.

Is it time to load up on CSL shares?

The team at Citi believes there could be some big returns on offer for investors who pick up CSL shares at current levels.

According to a note from this week, the broker has retained its buy rating and $325 price target on its shares.

Based on its current share price, this suggests a potential upside of approximately 39% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, the broker is expecting a 1.8% dividend yield in FY 2024, which boosts the potential total return beyond 40%.

What did the broker say?

Citi remains positive on the company following its capital markets and R&D day events.

Following the events, the broker believes the company is on track to achieve the market's expectations in the medium term. As a result, it continues to forecast a mid-teen earnings per share compound annual growth rate all the way through to FY 2028. The broker explains:

CSL held its combined capital markets and R&D day. The information presented was consistent with consensus expectations. CSL remains confident in its ability to generate double-digit EPS growth over the medium-term, in-line with consensus/Citi forecasts of 14%/15% EPS CAGR over FY23-28e.

CSL continues to target Behring GM in-line with pre-pandemic levels (~57-58%) in 3-5 years (consensus FY27/28 of 57%/58%). CSL forecasts Ig market volume growth of 6-8% CAGR over FY23-28 (CSL plans to grow above that) + low-single-digit/CPI price increases despite FcRn competition.

Citi also highlights that management doesn't expect any meaningful impact from Ozempic on its business. This could mean the recent selloff has been a huge overreaction. It adds:

At this stage, CSL doesn't expect GLP-1s to have a significant impact on its Vifor division. There was no change to FY24 guidance. No additional information on CSL112 was provided and Ph3 top-line data will be released in Q1'24. CSL is trading on a PE FY25 of ~23x, a 5x discount to historical average. Maintain Buy, $325 TP.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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