400% organic growth in 3 years: The ASX small-cap Cyan is pumped about

Smaller stocks have been punished the past couple of years, but recent weeks have shown the start of a recovery.

| More on:
Small girl giving a fist bump with a piggy bank in front of her.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Those investors with small-cap ASX shares in their portfolio have suffered greatly over the past couple of years.

Since inflation rocketed, interest rates followed, and Russia stamped into Ukraine, money was pulled out from smaller players into their larger rivals. 

This is due to the perception that big companies are better placed to cope with economic uncertainty, due to their pricing power and scale.

However, last month green shoots started to appear in small-cap land, according to Cyan portfolio manager Dean Fergie.

"After a very challenging investment period at the smaller end of the Australian market, July offered some real signs that confidence is finally beginning to emerge," he said in a memo to clients.

Inflation seems to be on the way down, and central banks look like they might put their guns away.

"Further, with the conclusion of June's tax-loss selling period, there has been a noticeable uptick in the confidence of small company investors, contributing to an atmosphere of growing optimism."

So which are the ASX shares that Fergie's team has the most conviction in?

Here are two:

CAGR of 69%? Yes, please

Video game developer Playside Studios Ltd (ASX: PLY) has had a wild ride since listing on the ASX in December 2020.

After starting its listed life in the mid-20 cents, it initially defied the tech sell-off at the end of 2021 to sit proudly at $1.19 in February last year.

Then the market lost faith, sending the Playside share price to as low as 28 cents earlier this year.

But with a massive 46% rise in July, Fergie reckons it's ready to turn it around.

"Playside proved it is more than a work-for-hire game developer with a solid rebound in its quarterly cash flow statement, with strong performances from both its original IP and work-for-hire divisions."

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3PlaySide Studios PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.com.au

The Melbourne company announced revenue guidance of more than $50 million for the current financial year.

"[This] was ~20% higher than previous expectations of analysts," he said.

"It is worth remembering that this represents organic growth from $10 million to a forecast $50 million+ in 3 years, equating to a compound annual growth rate of 69%."

Fergie's fund has been invested in Playside for years, but is more bullish than ever right now.

"We would also argue that the quality of revenue has improved, given Playside now partners with some of the best of breed industry leaders."

The start of 'significant price momentum'

Hospital software maker Alcidion Group Ltd (ASX: ALC) has been one of the most frustrating holdings for Fergie's portfolio.

Despite winning clients, the stock price has been pummelled 74% down since June 2021.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Alcidion Group PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.com.au

The latest performance figures, however, convince him that a turnaround is imminent.

"Alcidion rebounded well with a strong June quarter, from both a cash flow and revenue perspective."

Indeed, the market sent the share price soaring 32% over the last month.

"We expect this is the beginning of significant price momentum as the company executes on its strong pipeline of potential projects, particularly in the UK," said Fergie.

"We believe Alicidion will be a strong performer over the next 12 months as the government-led push to digitisation of the UK healthcare sector accelerates."

The Cyan team is not the only one keen on Alcidion.

According to CMC Markets, all three of Bell Potter, Canaccord and RBC Capital Markets currently rate the stock as a strong buy.

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alcidion Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alcidion Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Man with rocket wings which have flames coming out of them.
Broker Notes

These ASX 200 shares could rise 40%+

Big returns could be on offer from these shares according to analysts.

Read more »

a man in a business suite throws his arms open wide above his head and raises his face with his mouth open in celebration in front of a background of an illuminated board tracking stock market movements.
Broker Notes

Analysts say these ASX shares are top buys in June

Brokers are urging investors to buy these shares. Let's find out why.

Read more »

A man in trendy clothing sits on a bench in a shopping mall looking at his phone with interest and a surprised look on his face.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

Woman and man calculating a dividend yield.
REITs

What price target does Macquarie have on Goodman Group shares?

Goodman Group posted an interesting set of numbers in Q3. Here's Macquarie's take.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Broker Notes

Why Macquarie expects this ASX 200 copper stock to surge 36% in a year

Macquarie forecasts some hefty gains ahead for the ASX 200 copper miner. But why?

Read more »

two women celebrating good news on phone
Broker Notes

Top broker names 3 ASX All Ords stocks with between 30% and 77% upside

These 3 stocks offer compelling potential upside.

Read more »

Woman on her phone with diagrams of tech sector related elements linking with each other.
Broker Notes

A leading fund manager is buying these ASX 200 tech shares

Let's see why the fund manager has these shares in its focus portfolio.

Read more »

A young man wearing a black and white striped t-shirt looks surprised.
Broker Notes

Broker says these ASX 200 shares can rise 40% to 80%

Bell Potter sees scope for these shares to rocket from current levels.

Read more »