The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is getting hammered today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed on Friday trading for $45.73. In afternoon trade on Monday, shares are swapping hands for $44.805, down 2.02%.
That compares to a 0.88% loss posted by the ASX 200 at this same time.
It's not just the BHP share price underperforming the benchmark today.
Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are down 2.3%, and the Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price is down 1.67% at this same time.
So, what's going on?
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Why is the BHP share price tumbling today?
The broader market, and the ASX 200 miners in particular, are feeling the heat from the ongoing and likely increasing slide in China's economy and property markets.
Chinese officials are scheduled to release key economic data for July tomorrow. But in a sign that markets don't expect much of a rebound in industrial output, and a likely decline in real estate investment over the month, iron ore futures slid 2.4% to US$100.30 per tonne.
That drop is throwing up some headwinds for the BHP share price today, as the industrial metal counts as the miner's number one revenue earner.
Atop inclement weather in China impacting construction projects in July, investors are increasingly concerned about a potential default at Country Garden, China's largest private property developer and sixth-largest builder overall.
Last week Country Garden, which employs 70,000 people and is building 3,000 housing projects in China, missed interest payments on two bonds. The 30-day grace period countdown clock has begun. Should Country Garden fail to make the payments in time, it will officially default.
The BHP share price held up reasonably well as that news circulated, closing down 0.2% last week.
What can ASX 200 investors expect?
As for what ASX 200 investors can expect from the BHP share price next, it will pay to keep an eye on China's economic data.
According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, July will likely see property investments in China decline further, bringing the drop over the first seven months of 2023 to 8.1% compared to the same period in 2022.
According to Bloomberg chief Asia economist Chang Shu:
We expect China's July activity data to show the economy weakening further. Extreme weather likely crimped investment. The deepening housing slump probably overwhelmed the impact of a brisk summer travel season, denting consumption.
Policy announcements suggest support is coming but that won't be apparent in the July figures.
So far, the stimulus measures announced by China's Politburo have been rather tepid.
But as China's economy slips into deflation, hopes are rising that the government will up its support measures. Any news on that front could offer some welcome tailwinds for the BHP share price.
Chief economist for North Asia at Standard Chartered Ding Shuang said:
With CPI falling to deflation, exports contracting further and property sector still struggling, we see incentive for the government to make full use of the fiscal space under the approved budget to stabilise growth.
Stay tuned.
