Here's what these brokers are saying about the Fortescue share price

Analysts aren't sure Fortescue deserves to trade at such a premium.

| More on:
Miner looking at his notes.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price is dropping again on Friday.

In morning trade, the mining giant's shares are down 3.5% to $22.12.

What's going on with the Fortescue share price?

Investors have been hitting the sell button today after brokers responded relatively negatively to the miner's quarterly update.

For example, analysts at Goldman Sachs were pleased with the company's performance in the quarter but not with its guidance for FY 2024. The broker highlights:

FMG reported a strong but in-line June Q operating result, with iron ore shipments of ~49Mt, unit costs of US$17.6/t and realised price of US$96/t (87% realisation), net debt of US$1bn all in-line with GSe. Our focus from the release and results call was on FY24 guidance and the ramp-up of Iron Bridge magnetite, with iron ore shipments ~5Mt lower than expected."

In light of this, the broker has lifted its earnings per share estimate for FY 2023 by 2% but lowered its FY 2024 and FY 2025 estimates by 2% and 8%, respectively.

This has ultimately led to the broker retaining its sell rating and cutting its price target by 3% to just $14.50.

Based on the current Fortescue share price, this implies a potential downside of 34% for investors over the next 12 months.

Isn't that a bit low?

While this might seem like a significantly low valuation, it isn't when you compare it to rivals BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). Goldman highlights that Fortescue's shares trade at a ~50% premium to these giants on a net asset value (NAV) basis. It explains:

The stock is trading at a premium to RIO & BHP on our estimates; 1.5x NAV vs. BHP at c.1.0x NAV and RIO at 0.9x NAV, c.7.5x NTM EV/EBITDA (vs. BHP/RIO on c.6.5x/5.0x), and FY24E FCF of c.3% vs. BHP/RIO on c.5%/6%.

It is also worth highlighting that Bell Potter also sees significant downside risk. This morning it has retained its sell rating with an improved price target of $15.97. This suggests a potential downside of 28%. It said:

While operations continue to perform at the top end of expectations, a forecast decline in iron ore prices, earnings and dividends combined with the uncertainty over capital allocation and investment returns for both FFI and the Belinga project in Gabon, causes us to see limited upside from the current share price.

Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

Scott just revealed what he believes could be the 'five best ASX stocks' for investors to buy right now. We believe these stocks are trading at attractive prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now...

See The 5 Stocks *Returns as of 3 April 2025

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

Focused man entrepreneur with glasses working, looking at laptop screen thinking about something intently while sitting in the office.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Investors had a rough end to a tough week this Friday.

Read more »

A man working in the stock exchange.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.
Share Market News

Why Antipa, Imricor, Lynas, and Newmont shares are pushing higher today

These shares are ending the week on a high. But why?

Read more »

A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.
Share Fallers

Why Flight Centre, Monash IVF, NextDC, and Woodside shares are sinking today

These shares are having a tough finish to the week. Let's see what is going on.

Read more »

A woman in a business suit holds a large gold bar in both hands with a gold arrow tracking upwards.
Gold

Gold price hits new all-time-high above US$3,200. Can it keep going?

Demand for precious metals could go higher from here.

Read more »

A businessman looking at his digital tablet or strategy planning in hotel conference lobby. He is happy at achieving financial goals.
Share Market News

Are you buying the dip? Here are the top 10 ASX shares Aussie investors are targeting

Data from trading platform Stake reveals the most popular ASX shares among investors buying the dip.

Read more »

seismograph with dollar sign
Share Market News

After hitting a five-year low, does the Australian dollar have further to fall as the trade war plays out?

The Australian dollar has been hit on multiple fronts. Where is it heading from here?

Read more »

Three miners stand together at a mine site studying documents with equipment in the background
Resources Shares

What does Macquarie think Fortescue shares are worth?

Is the iron ore giant about to turn a corner?

Read more »