Worried about CBA shares? Here's where fund managers are going instead

Insurers have pricing power while the banks face strong competition.

A woman wearing the black and yellow corporate colours of a leading bank gazes out the window in thought as she holds a tablet in her hands.

Image source: Getty Imgaes

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Fund managers are reportedly switching from ASX bank shares to ASX insurance shares 
  • Insurers have pricing power and little change to competition, while bank shares have strong competition and dwindling margins 
  • However, bank stocks like CBA shares pay higher dividends than the big insurance stocks 

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are having a pretty lacklustre year in 2023.

The crown jewel of the big four ASX 200 bank shares closed 2022 at $102.60.

In late afternoon trading on Friday, the CBA share price is $101.27.

Kind of a sideways shuffle. Not very exciting.

CBA share price flat as fundies eye insurance stocks

It seems fund managers are not currently inspired to hold bank shares like CBA, either.

Even the world's greatest investor, Warren Buffett, is 'very cautious' on banking stocks this year.

According to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), fund managers are now quitting ASX bank shares in favour of ASX insurance shares.

Let's look into why.

Fundies ditch ASX 200 bank shares for insurance shares

On the face of it, it may seem strange that ASX 200 bank shares are underperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) in 2023 despite interest rates continuing to rise.

The Reserve Bank has raised interest rates 12 times since it began raising rates in May 2022. This cash rate has gone from 0.1% to 4.1% today.

But as we've previously reported, rising rates present pros and cons for bank shares like CBA.

The banks say they've got a number of challenges today. They include strong competition, downward pressure on net interest margins (NIMs), the potential for rising bad debts, and economic uncertainty.

This is why some fundies see insurance shares as the more attractive ASX financial shares right now.

They have pricing power, and people are reluctant to cease insurance despite the rising costs of living.

The AFR reports that the big general insurers have raised premiums by 10% to 20%. There's been no change to competition levels and no big insurance events in recent times.

Plus, they're raking in extra investment income (insurers typically invest the cash premiums we pay into bonds, and yields are up).

The fundies' switch from bank shares to insurance shares has helped propel the big insurers in 2023.

In the year to date:

  • The Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) share price has gone up 23%
  • The QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) share price has lifted 14%
  • The Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN) share price has increased 13%.

Meantime, the CBA share price is down 1.3%. The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price is down 8.5%. And the Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price is down 5.4%.

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price is the outlier, up 6.1%.

Should you switch from CBA shares to insurance shares, too?

It's worth remembering that fund managers spend their days on an endless mouse wheel trying to outdo the market with their investment decisions.

This can necessitate changing their holdings in accordance with short-term trends and predictions far more frequently than is realistic for an ordinary investor with a day job and a life to live.

It's worth remembering that ASX 200 bank shares have always been superior dividend payers.

So, during times of slow or no share price growth, dividends can be a good enough reason to continue holding CBA shares or any other banking stock.

In fact, in today's era of higher interest rates, Morgan Stanley says dividend stocks are more likely to form the bulk of investors' returns for a while yet.

And the broker is not alone in its view.

CBA shares are expected to pay $4.35 per share in dividends in FY24, which is a yield of 4.3%.

Want to know how much the other ASX 200 bank shares are expected to pay in dividends in FY24?

Check out our article here.

Spoiler alert: Westpac shares are expected to pay the highest yield among the big four bank shares at 7% in FY24.

By comparison, IAG shares are trading on a trailing dividend yield of 1.9%, Suncorp shares 3.7%, and QBE shares 2.5%.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Anz Group, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, and Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
Bank Shares

Is it time to buy Westpac shares?

The Westpac share price has taken a hit this week. Are the bank’s shares ripe for a rebound?

Read more »

A businesswoman on the phone is shocked as she looks at her watch, she's running out of time.
Bank Shares

Want to bag the next Westpac shares dividend? Better be quick…

Westpac will pay an interim dividend of 76 cents per share next month.

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Bank Shares

After its result, what does Macquarie think Westpac shares are worth?

Let's see what the broker is saying about Australia's oldest bank.

Read more »

Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.
Bank Shares

What could Westpac's results mean for CBA shares?

Westpac recently announced its FY25 half-year result.

Read more »

A woman works on her desktop and tablet, having a win with crypto.
Bank Shares

Should new investors spend their first $5,000 on the big 4 banks?

New to investing? You might be considering one of Australia’s major banks as your first investment. 

Read more »

Woman calculating dividends on calculator and working on a laptop.
Bank Shares

Buying the dip: $10,000 invested in Westpac and CBA shares at April's lows is now worth…

Investors would have done well to follow Warren Buffett’s advice to be greedy on Westpac and CBA shares in early…

Read more »

Lines of codes and graphs in the background with woman looking at laptop trying to understand the data.
Earnings Results

Westpac share price sinks on half-year results miss

Let's see how the big four bank performed during the first half.

Read more »

A man sits in deep thought with a pen held to his lips as he ponders his computer screen with a laptop open next to him on his desk in a home office environment.
Bank Shares

Why does Macquarie think the big 4 ASX bank shares are 'on borrowed time'?

With Australian interest rates likely to fall, the banks face compressed margins in the medium term.

Read more »