The best investments start with 'discomfort'. Here's one ASX share that fits the bill

This construction stock has delivered 'spectacularly poor' returns to investors over the past few years, but Allan Gray now reckons it has upside.

| More on:
A man sits uncomfortably at his laptop computer in an outdoor location at a table with trees in the background as he clutches the back of his neck with a wincing look on his face.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The simple fact is that the ASX shares that you bought when no one else loved them are the ones that have the most potential.

That's because if everyone else was also bullish on a stock, then the entry price would already have been very high.

This is where contrarian investing comes in. Buy the stocks that others have fled from, then wait for the rebound.

Investment outfit Allan Gray made its name from such a strategy, and its chief investment officer Simon Mawhinney recently described it as picking ASX shares that make you feel anxious about buying.

"If it's true that good investments often begin with an element of discomfort, then Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC) would fit the bill," Mawhinney said in a quarterly memo to clients.

'Share price performance has been woeful'

You can't get much more contrarian than the much-maligned construction company.

Over the past year, the Lendlease share price has plunged 16.3%, and it has dropped an awful 60% if you go back five years.

"Lendlease's share price performance has been woeful and makes the performance of the Small Ordinaries Index look like that of an artificial intelligence chip designer."

Allan Gray analyst Tim Morrison listed a sickening list of reasons why investors have pulled their money out of Lendlease over the past decade, including engineering project losses, aggressive accounting, real estate value decline, and balance sheet concerns.

"Returns to Lendlease's shareholders have been spectacularly poor," he said.

"But we believe there is cause for some optimism."

The underperforming engineering business was sold off in 2021, the capital base has been written down, and cost reductions are underway.

"Several sale processes are in advanced stages of execution that, together with earnings retentions over the coming years, should help the company reduce its debt burden."

This underperformer only has to improve slightly for share price to rocket

But the biggest ace up Lendlease's sleeve, according to Morrison, is the dirt cheap share price.

He noted how the company is aiming for an after-tax return on equity of somewhere between 8% to 10%, which is roughly a profit of $600 million.

"At its current price, investors are paying nine times these targeted earnings," said Morrison.

"To be on the same earnings multiple as the broader share market, Lendlease only needs to deliver a 5% return on equity, compared to its target of 8% to 10%."

So if the company can hit its modest targets, most of the risk for the share price is on the upwards.

"We believe there could be significant upside if Lendlease management is able to deliver on its targets and, in our opinion, relatively more modest downside if it doesn't."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

A man has a surprised and relieved expression on his face. as he raises his hands up to his face in response to the high fluctuations in the Galileo share price today
Broker Notes

Guess which beaten down ASX share is rocketing 11% today

Why are investors buying this beaten down stock? Let's find out.

Read more »

Broker working with share prices on computers.
Broker Notes

These 3 ASX All Ords stocks just got sizeable broker upgrades

Top brokers expect strong performance from these ASX All Ords stocks.

Read more »

Man pointing an upward line on a bar graph symbolising a rising share price.
Broker Notes

Morgans says these ASX 200 stocks can rise 30%

Big returns could be on the cards for buyers of these shares.

Read more »

Successful group of people applauding in a business meeting and looking very happy.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »

A group of stockbrokers sit in a room with several computer screens in front of them as they discuss the Zip share price and Zip's merger with Sezzle
Broker Notes

Here are the latest broker rating changes on 3 prominent ASX shares

Brokers have delivered a mixed bag this week.

Read more »

Two people climb to the summit and raise their arms in success as the sun rises brightly over the mountains.
Financial Shares

'Strong momentum': 2 ASX financial shares backed by top fundie for 2025

ASX financial shares had a strong trading session on Tuesday with several new price records set.

Read more »

Person holding Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Broker Notes

The best Australian shares to buy with $7,000 right now

Analysts think these shares could give you a good return on investment.

Read more »

Happy shareholders clap and smile as they listen to a company earnings report.
Broker Notes

Top broker says buy ResMed and this ASX 200 share

Ord Minnett was impressed with their quarterly updates from last month.

Read more »