Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares will be on watch next week.
That's because the mining giant is scheduled to release its quarterly update on Wednesday 19 July.
Ahead of the release of the update, let's take a look to see what the market is expecting from the miner.
What is expected from Rio Tinto's quarterly update?
According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are expecting Rio Tinto to report below consensus iron ore shipments of 78.7Mt for the quarter. The consensus estimate is for shipments of 81.4Mt.
For the first half of FY 2023, Goldman's estimate would mean shipments of 162.4Mt.
It is a similar story for alumina, aluminium, and bauxite, with Goldman predicting below consensus quarterly production of 13.6Mt, 1,904kt, and 797kt, respectively.
However, two commodities that the broker expects to come in ahead of consensus estimates are copper and titanium dioxide slag with production of 157kt and 306kt, respectively.
What about pricing?
The note reveals that Goldman is forecasting an average realised iron ore price of US$110 per tonne. This is a touch ahead of the consensus estimate of US$108 per tonne.
It's the same for aluminium, with an average realised price of US$2,899 a tonne expected. This compares to the consensus estimate of US$2,895 a tonne.
Finally, the broker expects the average realised copper price to disappoint at US$364 per pound. This is 7% short of the consensus estimate of US$391 per pound.
Are Rio Tinto shares a buy?
Despite being below consensus on some of its estimates, the broker is very positive on Rio Tinto shares. It currently has a conviction buy rating and a $128.40 price target on them.
Based on the current Rio Tinto share price of $110.90, this implies a potential upside of almost 16% for investors.
And with Goldman forecasting a US$3.70 (A$5.55) per share dividend in FY 2023, which equates to a 5% yield, the total potential return is approximately 21%.
