Can Sayona Mining shares keep the party going in FY24?

Does Sayona have the financial fortitude to keep moving forward in FY24?

| More on:
Female miner smiling in front of a mining vehicle as the Pilbara Minerals share price rises

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) shares have outpaced the leading Aussie index over the past year. Now valued at $1.7 billion, can the lithium project developer continue to deliver for its shareholders moving forward?

Following a 22.9% gain over the preceding year, the next financial year will become the new focus for Sayona investors. Given that the mining company is still in the 'project development' stage, the main concern will no doubt be on Sayona reaching production as soon as possible.

Working towards money making

It's hard to argue that Sayona Mining shares are not at the more speculative end of the market at the moment. In its quarterly report for the March ending period, only $482,000 in cash from customers was generated, while net cash from operating activities arrived at an outflow of $37.6 million.

As the saying goes, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine." To support that lofty $1.7 billion valuation, Sayona must eventually come through with some meaningful revenue and earnings.

Fortunately, commercial-grade spodumene concentrate has now been produced at the North American Lithium (NAL) operation in Québec. In a recent interview, Sayona finance manager Dougal Elder noted that the company almost had enough tonnes produced to fill the first shipment from NAL, with the first concentrate shipment expected in July.

Last week, Sayona Mining shares barely budged despite a revised combined net present value for NAL of $5.4 billion. This might be due to current estimates placing downstream processing capability in the 2026 calendar year.

Nevertheless, Sayona is anticipating making multiple unprocessed ore shipments in FY24, which should provide some level of revenue. However, the true value proposition being promoted by management is becoming the only lithium operation with a concentrator and carbonate plant on the same site in North America.

Will Sayona get there without severe share dilution?

Arguably, dilution is the most significant risk to holders of Sayona Mining shares while waiting for profits. Bringing a mining project to life is costly, and the lithium projects this miner is working on are no exception.

According to the latest preliminary study, NAL will require an additional US$415 million in capital expenditure. Most of the A$200 million raised in May will go toward these efforts. However, more financial firepower may be needed.

Data by Trading View

As shown above, the number of Sayona Mining shares on issue has nearly quadrupled over the past three years. Depending on how much revenue the company can derive from ore shipments and the execution of construction, more dilution could be on the horizon.

For now, Sayona's balance sheet looks relatively strong. At the end of last year, it held A$95.5 million in net cash, with a further $256 million being raised since then.

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

'I hate what I have done': Mineral Resources share price down as Ellison laments actions

Managing Director Chris Ellison says he deeply regrets the impact of his 'error of judgement'.

Read more »

A bearded man holds both arms up diagonally and points with his index fingers to the sky with a thrilled look on his face over these rising Tassal share price
Materials Shares

Why is this ASX lithium stock jumping to a 52-week high today?

This lithium stock is smashing the market this year despite all the doom and gloom in the industry.

Read more »

Projection of two hands being shaken on a deal.
Materials Shares

Sayona Mining shares sink 13% on Piedmont Lithium merger news and capital raise

This merger will create the largest lithium producer in North America.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Down 28% in 2024, why this ASX 200 lithium stock could now be 'deeply undervalued'

The ASX 200 lithium stock has drawn plenty of investor attention over the past month.

Read more »

Image from either construction, mining or the oil industry of a friendly worker.
Materials Shares

Buy BHP shares for a 20%+ return

Goldman Sachs expects big total returns from this mining giant.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Here's why ASX uranium shares are ripping higher today

Uranium shares are smashing the markets today.

Read more »

A female broker in a red jacket whispers in the ear of a man who has a surprised look on his face as she explains which two ASX 200 shares should do well in today's volatile climate
Materials Shares

2 ASX 200 lithium stocks to buy for big returns

Which stocks are analysts tipping as buys right now? Let's find out.

Read more »

Young businesswoman sitting in kitchen and working on laptop.
Materials Shares

Is Mineral Resources stock a good buy right now?

This mining share is trading close to multi-year lows. Is this a buying opportunity? Let's find out.

Read more »