3 things ASX investors should watch this week

Keep an eye on these developments, as they could impact your share portfolio.

| More on:
Young woman dressed in suit sitting at cafe staring at laptop screen with hands to her forehead looking tense

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It's a huge week for ASX investors this week, according to eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert.

Here are the three events that he considers the most critical to monitor:

1. Australian monthly inflation update

Rampant inflation is what's been driving the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates 12 times over the last 13 months.

So the general public, not just investors, will be watching with bated breath as the latest consumer price index figures are released Wednesday.

Gilbert noted how last month inflation nudged up to 6.8% due to increasing rent and fuel prices, forcing RBA governor Phillip Lowe's hand.

"Lowe has made it clear that the RBA will do what is necessary to bring inflation under control, which has put the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) under pressure so far this year due to markets pricing in further hikes from the central bank."

Market consensus is that the central bank will push up its cash rate from the current 4.1% to 4.6% over the coming months.

But Wednesday's update could rescue us all from that fate, according to Gilbert, if it shows "a sharp decline in inflation".

"Recent RBA minutes point towards 'upside' risks to inflation, and there are fears over services inflation, with rising electricity costs and soaring rents set to keep feeding inflation," he said.

"The good news is that inflation is expected to decline to 6.2% for May, but a number below 6% would likely be needed to divert the RBA from raising rates at the start of July."

2. Australian retail sales update

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will reveal the latest retail sales data one day after the inflation figures.

This is another important wind gauge for the RBA.

"Last month's data showed that the RBA's extensive tightening cycle is having its desired effect on consumers, with sales flat for April," said Gilbert.

"This is a situation where bad news is good news for the RBA. Retail sales were flat, but this means that consumption is slowing, a key ingredient in the fight against inflation."

He added that retailers were now "feeling the full pain" of the recent run of interest rate rises as consumers locked their wallets.

The situation means that discounting is starting to be seen as the end of financial year approaches, with retailers keen to move stock.

"The idea of driving volume through markdowns can be useful but unfortunately, it means profit margins erode as a result," said Gilbert.

"We're already seeing that take shape, with many retailers downgrading their profit guidance with the full extent of the difficulties likely to be evident during reporting season."

The expectation for Thursday is that retail sales would "gain marginally" in May to 0.1%.

"But the next six months may see this number decline further as rates continue to rise and the lag of previous hikes takes full effect."

3. Can Bitcoin hit a new 52-week high?

Last week the most prominent cryptocurrency scored a huge boost as BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) submitted an application to regulators to create a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: NTC) exchange-traded fund.

"Bitcoin jumped by about US$30,000 for the first time in months," said Gilbert.

"But the key level to watch now is a move above US$30,000. The asset hasn't traded above this level for a year."

He added trading volumes had already risen, and a new 52-week high could "spur investor optimism". 

"The bottom line here is that this is a tip of the hat from Wall Street to crypto, signalling institutions are clearly keen on this asset, even if it felt crypto had left the conversation for a few months."

Gilbert pointed out BlackRock historically had an excellent success rate in having their ETF applications through regulators, with 575 approvals versus one rejection. 

"A potential ETF approval, alongside clearer regulation and a bitcoin halving next year, are crucial catalysts for a solid second half of 2023 for Bitcoin," he said.

"However, there are still risks, from regulatory crackdowns to the potential for higher-for-longer interest rates that may spoil the party."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A young female investor sits in her home office looking at her ipad and smiling as she sees the QBE share price rising
Share Market News

5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

A good finish to the week is expected for Aussie investors.

Read more »

A man has computer-generated images rushing through his head indicating an AI (Artificial Intelligence) concept of a communication network.
Technology Shares

ASX investors are obsessed with Nvidia shares! Here's why

The global chipmaker reported a 94% increase in annual revenue in the third quarter.

Read more »

A man wearing a red jacket and mountain hiking clothes stands at the top of a mountain peak and looks out over countless mountain ranges.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was another disappointing day for ASX investors this Thursday.

Read more »

two racing cars battle to take first place on a formula one track with one tailing the the leader and looking to overtake the car.
Opinions

Down 21% in 2024. This ASX 300 stock looks like a money-making monster

Profits are expected to plunge, but the future could still be bright.

Read more »

A businesswoman exhales a deep sigh after receiving bad news, and gets on with it.
52-Week Lows

Down 68% from highs, this ASX 200 stock just hit a 4-year low. Time to pounce?

Is this beaten down stock a buy? Let's see what one leading broker is saying.

Read more »

two men smiling with a laptop in front of them, symbolising a rising share price.
Share Gainers

Why Pinnacle, PWR, Race Oncology, and Vulcan shares are flying today

These shares are having a good session on Thursday. But why?

Read more »

A young man clasps his hand to his head with his eyes closed and a pained expression on his face as he clasps a laptop computer in front of him, seemingly learning of bad news or a poor investment.
Share Fallers

Why Accent, Sayona Mining, Web Travel, and Weebit Nano shares are dropping today

These shares are having a tough time on Thursday. Why are they being sold off?

Read more »

Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.
Share Market News

Insider buying alert: 3 ASX 200 shares directors are snapping up right now

Directors in some of Australia's blue-chip businesses aren't shying away from the market.

Read more »