The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is up 1.1% in Wednesday morning trade.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) iron ore giant closed yesterday trading for $43.60 a share. Shares are currently changing hands for $44.08 apiece.
This comes amid a 1.4% increase in the price of iron ore overnight.
It also comes on the heels of the latest iron ore price forecast from Goldman Sachs. One that's unlikely to hearten investors in ASX 200 iron ore stocks.
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What is Goldman Sachs predicting for the iron ore price?
The BHP share price is in the green despite news that Goldman strategists have downgraded their iron ore price forecast by a sizeable 18%.
As The Australian Financial Review reports, the broker blames slowing global demand for the industrial metal's price downgrade.
Demand from China is notably weaker than had been expected amid the Middle Kingdom's apparently overhyped reopening, which will likely lead to the first global surplus of iron ore hitting the markets since 2018.
The broker noted the sluggish recovery in China's real estate markets has seen a 5% decline in steel demand compared to last year. And it expects iron ore supplies to continue outpacing demand in 2024.
This has seen Goldman's analysts, led by strategist Nicholas Snowdown, slash their iron ore price forecast for the current half-year from US$110 per tonne to US$90 per tonne.
Goldman's three-month price target was revised to US$80 per tonne.
That's almost 25% lower than the US$107 per tonne the industrial metal is currently fetching.
However, the BHP share price is dependent on more than just the price of iron ore. While the industrial metal is the miner's dominant revenue driver, BHP also earns significant revenue from copper, coal, and other commodities.
Then there's uranium.
It doesn't come close to BHP's iron ore division in terms of revenue.
However, the miner's Olympic Dam project located in South Australia holds the world's biggest known single deposit of uranium. Meaning any significant increase in uranium demand could help boost the BHP share price.
And, as The Australian reports, BHP is lobbying the government to axe "prohibitions" on nuclear energy to help provide reliable baseload power as Australia moves towards net-zero emissions.
According to BHP:
Reducing barriers to the energy transition … should include removing unnecessary restrictions on new sources of energy supply such as existing prohibitions on nuclear energy.
BHP share price snapshot
Over the past 12 months, the BHP share price is down 5%.
That compares to a 1% gain posted by the ASX 200 over this same time.
