Why did the AGL share price charge 13% higher in May?

Something put a spark in this energy company's shares in May.

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The AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) share price continued its positive run in May.

During the month, the energy company's shares charged 13% higher.

This meant the AGL share price was up an impressive 36% over a three-month period.

Why did the AGL share price race higher?

The strong gain by the AGL share price in May was driven largely by the release of an update from its rival Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG).

On the very first day of the month, Origin revealed that it was upgrading its energy markets guidance for FY 2023. It commented:

"For FY2023, Origin now expects Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA to be between $950 million and $1,200 million. Origin had previously guided towards the higher end of the $600 million to $730 million range."

And while some of this guidance increase is company specific, the rest is being driven by "an improvement in the underlying performance of the Energy Markets business."

In light of this, investors appear to believe that AGL could be outperforming expectations as well and were scrambling to buy its shares.

Where next for its shares?

With the AGL share price now trading at a 52-week high, some brokers appear to believe that it may have peaked for the time being.

For example, while analysts at Macquarie and UBS have the equivalent of buy ratings on its shares, their price targets of $9.61 and $9.60, respectively, only imply potential upside of approximately 2.5%.

Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley has an equal weight rating and $8.88 price target, suggesting potential downside of 5%.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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