Just right: Is this the Goldilocks ASX lithium share?

Everyone owns mature producers and junior explorers are notoriously risky. Surely there's something in between?

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The trouble with every man and his dog jumping onto ASX lithium shares is that there aren't many true bargains left.

The mature producers are well-bought already, while the stocks for exploration companies are cheaper to compensate for the risk that they might find nothing.

If only there was a Goldilocks stock? Not too hot, not too cold, but just right.

Earlier this month, the team at Market Matters already revealed their preferred lithium plays as Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) and Global Lithium Resources Ltd (ASX: GL1).

But this week it admitted there is a third way that also looks favourable.

"We have Pilbara given it's producing, throwing off lots of cash etc, while we also own Global Lithium, which is a higher risk exploration company," Shaw and Partners portfolio manager James Gerrish said in a Market Matters Q&A.

"Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) is in between these two in terms of risk profile."

Producing lithium already with many years of growth to come

Indeed, Core Lithium is already extracting lithium as we speak.

But that's in its early days, and Gerrish's team is looking forward to a lift in production.

"I think it is [a buy] with FY24 being the year where earnings really start to ramp up," said Gerrish.

"We like it, and believe it will trade higher from here."

The Motley Fool's Bernd Struben is also a fan of Core Lithium shares because of the company's Finniss Lithium Project near Port Darwin.

"The timing of the project couldn't be better," he said.

"Finniss achieved first spodumene concentrate production in February. The miner's maiden 3,500-tonne spodumene concentrate parcel was transported to Darwin in March and early April."

According to Struben, the project will extract an average of 160,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium concentrate annually over a 12-year mine life.

"Core Lithium does have a smaller resource than some of its peers. However, on 18 April, it announced the Finniss Mineral Resource had increased by 62%."

The Core Lithium share price has rocketed almost 40% since a March trough.

According to CMC Markets, two out of nine analysts who currently cover the stock reckon it's a strong buy. Three rate it a hold, while four are urging investors to sell.

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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