The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price is down 1.5% today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed yesterday trading for $13.97. Shares are currently changing hands for $13.76 apiece.
You don't have to feel bad for longer-term shareholders though.
The Northern Star share price is up 60% over the past 12 months. And that doesn't include the 22.5 cents per share in fully franked dividends the gold miner has paid out over that time.
That's some, erm, solid gold performance there.
And, according to the analysts at Macquarie, shareholders could enjoy more outsized gains in the year ahead.
What's the outlook for the gold price?
Gold is currently trading for US$2016 per troy ounce. That's up almost 10% from the US$1,839 per ounce the yellow metal was fetching on 3 January, which has offered some steady tailwinds to the Northern Star share price in 2023.
The gold price has been ratcheting up amid ongoing geopolitical unrest surrounding Ukraine and Thailand, and financial uncertainty spurred by the regional banking crisis in the United States. As a classic haven asset, gold tends to do well under these scenarios.
Markets are also pricing in a likely end to interest rate hikes from the US Fed, which is seeing bond yields slide. That's also supportive of the gold price, as the yellow metal itself pays no yield.
All this has led to what Macquarie analysts labelled a "near enough perfect backdrop" to send gold back to, or above, fresh all-time highs. That high water mark of US$2,075 per ounce was hit in August 2020, just months after the COVID pandemic swept across the globe.
Buoyed by the rocketing gold price, the Northern Star share price topped $15.89 that month.
And we may be in for a repeat performance.
According to the Macquarie analysts (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):
We still expect [gold] to test the 2020 nominal high of US$2,075 and likely break above it, entering uncharted territory. The last time this occurred was in 2020, when the 2011 high of US$1,921 was taken out, with prices rallying a further US$154.
Macquarie counts Northern Star among the top two ASX 200 gold stocks, with the company having the potential to increase its annual gold production without investing in new mines.
Macquarie has a buy rating on the miner, with a $15 price target. That's 9% above the current Northern Star share price.
How has the Northern Star share price performed longer-term?
The Northern Star share price has gained 113% over the past five years.
Investors who snapped up the stock in its early years of trading will have made life-changing gains.
Over the last 18 years, since 12 May 2005, the ASX gold miner has gained an eye-popping 22,858%.
Keep an eye on those minnows!
