What's the outlook for the Core Lithium share price in May?

After gaining 14% in April, can the Core Lithium share price continue to outperform in May?

| More on:
A smiling woman holds an arm in the air in triumph while also holding a graphic of a fully-charged battery in her other hand representing the Pilbara Minerals share price

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • The Core Lithium share price is off to a strong start in May 
  • The ASX 200 lithium share could see more gains ahead based on some bullish forecasts for the lithium price 
  • Chile’s plans to nationalise its lithium industry could crimp global supplies of the battery critical metal 

The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price smashed the benchmark in April.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium stock gained an impressive 14% over the month, easily surpassing the 1.8% gains posted by the ASX 200 in April.

Of course, those gains have all been banked.

The pressing question now is, can the Core Lithium share price continue to outperform in May?

What can ASX 200 investors expect from Core Lithium in May?

As we kick off the second week of May, the Core Lithium share price is up 6.1% so far this month.

That's being driven by a big surge today, with shares up 7.8% at the time of writing. This will be welcomed by shareholders but comes as rather sour news to the host of traders betting against the ASX 200 lithium stock.

Currently short interest in the stock stands at 9%.

And short sellers may get burned beyond today and throughout May as full-scale production at Core Lithium's Finniss Lithium Project looks to be just around the corner.

Atop soon moving into producer territory, the Core Lithium share price could receive some helpful tailwinds from a potential rebound in the lithium price.

As you may know, the lithium carbonate price is down some 75% from the all-time highs reached in November 2022.

But in recent days a growing number of analysts are coming out of the woodwork to forecast a rebound in lithium prices in 2023.

Part of that is related to Chile's plan to nationalise the nation's lithium industry, which could put a crimp on supplies.

Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari, commodity strategists at ANZ, said Chile's policy will see the government involved in "all new lithium projects".

They also highlighted that the technology required for the nation's push for environmentally friendly processing is "still unproven on a commercial scale".

According to the strategists:

This could delay the delivery of its pipeline of projects. Other producers also have their issues. Increasing resource nationalism, particularly in Africa could limit growth in supply.

A decreased supply from Chile, a top-three global lithium producer, could drive higher prices for the battery critical metal, which in turn should support the Core Lithium share price.

Indeed, research firm Antaike expects lithium carbonate prices to average US$33,828 per tonne this year. While that's less than half the average price recorded last year, it's some 25% above current prices.

Also sounding a bullish note on the outlook for the lithium price is Morgan Stanley.

The broker believes the beaten-down lithium price is at a "turning point".

"China carbonate prices have bounced 30% from their lows, and hydroxide prices have rebounded by 20%," the broker noted this week.

According to Morgan Stanley:

Although China's electric vehicle sales and battery production are back in growth mode after a lacklustre start of the year, cathode and battery cell producers are still not fully back buying in the spot market. But sentiment is clearly improving, and their lithium inventories appear to have eroded.

Core Lithium share price snapshot

The Core Lithium share price is up 3% in 2023 and down 10% over the past 12 months.

Investors who bought shares in the ASX 200 lithium stock two years ago will be sitting on a gain of 315%.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A woman jumps for joy with a rocket drawn on the wall behind her.
Materials Shares

Why is this ASX 300 battery tech stock jumping 11% today?

Another agreement and big plans are getting investors excited on Monday.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

'I hate what I have done': Mineral Resources share price down as Ellison laments actions

Managing Director Chris Ellison says he deeply regrets the impact of his 'error of judgement'.

Read more »

A bearded man holds both arms up diagonally and points with his index fingers to the sky with a thrilled look on his face over these rising Tassal share price
Materials Shares

Why is this ASX lithium stock jumping to a 52-week high today?

This lithium stock is smashing the market this year despite all the doom and gloom in the industry.

Read more »

Projection of two hands being shaken on a deal.
Materials Shares

Sayona Mining shares sink 13% on Piedmont Lithium merger news and capital raise

This merger will create the largest lithium producer in North America.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Down 28% in 2024, why this ASX 200 lithium stock could now be 'deeply undervalued'

The ASX 200 lithium stock has drawn plenty of investor attention over the past month.

Read more »

Image from either construction, mining or the oil industry of a friendly worker.
Materials Shares

Buy BHP shares for a 20%+ return

Goldman Sachs expects big total returns from this mining giant.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Here's why ASX uranium shares are ripping higher today

Uranium shares are smashing the markets today.

Read more »

A female broker in a red jacket whispers in the ear of a man who has a surprised look on his face as she explains which two ASX 200 shares should do well in today's volatile climate
Materials Shares

2 ASX 200 lithium stocks to buy for big returns

Which stocks are analysts tipping as buys right now? Let's find out.

Read more »