Here's what brokers are saying about the Fortescue share price in May

Fortescue shares have pulled back meaningfully in recent weeks. Is this a buying opportunity?

| More on:
Three miners wearing hard hats and high vis vests take a break on site at a mine as the Fortescue share price drops in FY22

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price was under pressure again on Wednesday.

The mining giant's shares sank 4% to $19.99.

This means the Fortescue share price is now down over 14% from the 52-week high of $23.33 it reached in February.

Is the Fortescue share price cheap enough yet?

Unfortunately, the broker community continues to believe that the Fortescue share price is overvalued even after recent weakness.

In fact, I'm not aware of a single broker that has a buy rating on its shares right now.

The most positive broker is arguably Morgans, which has the equivalent of a sell rating and $18.20 price target on its shares. This implies potential downside of 9% from current levels.

Whereas analysts at Bell Potter, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all see scope for the iron ore giant's shares to crash over 20% from here. They each have sell ratings on its shares with price targets of $14.45, $15.80, and $14.10, respectively.

What is being said about the miner?

Last week, Goldman Sachs revealed why it is so bearish on the Fortescue share price. One reason is its valuation, the other is its dire free cash flow outlook.

In respect to its valuation, the broker highlights that its shares trade at a significant (undeserved) premium to peers. It explained:

[T]he stock is trading at a premium to RIO & BHP on our estimates; 1.4x NAV vs. BHP at c. 0.95x NAV and RIO at 0.9x NAV, c. 5.5x NTM EV/EBITDA (vs. BHP/RIO on c. 5x/3.5x), and FY24 FCF of c. 4% vs. BHP/RIO on c. 7/10%.

As for its free cash flow, the broker believes its material capital expenditure will mean its dividends come under pressure. It adds:

Uncertainties around Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) diversification and Pilbara decarbonisation and impact on dividend and balance sheet. The 2022 FMG site trip to the Pilbara highlighted ongoing elevated spend to maintain hematite group shipments at ~190Mtpa going forward. Combined with the ~US$7-8bn decarb program, we forecast FMG's capex to increase from ~US$3.3bn in FY23 to US$3.8bn by FY25.

We continue to think FMG is at an inflection point on capital allocation, and to fund the ambitious strategy, we assume the company raises ~US$5.5bn of new debt, reduces the dividend payout ratio from the current ~65% in 1H FY23 to ~50% from FY24 onwards (bottom end of the 50-80% guidance range), and increases gross gearing to ~30% by FY26 (in-line with the company's target of 30-40%).

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A woman jumps for joy with a rocket drawn on the wall behind her.
Materials Shares

Why is this ASX 300 battery tech stock jumping 11% today?

Another agreement and big plans are getting investors excited on Monday.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

'I hate what I have done': Mineral Resources share price down as Ellison laments actions

Managing Director Chris Ellison says he deeply regrets the impact of his 'error of judgement'.

Read more »

A bearded man holds both arms up diagonally and points with his index fingers to the sky with a thrilled look on his face over these rising Tassal share price
Materials Shares

Why is this ASX lithium stock jumping to a 52-week high today?

This lithium stock is smashing the market this year despite all the doom and gloom in the industry.

Read more »

Projection of two hands being shaken on a deal.
Materials Shares

Sayona Mining shares sink 13% on Piedmont Lithium merger news and capital raise

This merger will create the largest lithium producer in North America.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Down 28% in 2024, why this ASX 200 lithium stock could now be 'deeply undervalued'

The ASX 200 lithium stock has drawn plenty of investor attention over the past month.

Read more »

Image from either construction, mining or the oil industry of a friendly worker.
Materials Shares

Buy BHP shares for a 20%+ return

Goldman Sachs expects big total returns from this mining giant.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Here's why ASX uranium shares are ripping higher today

Uranium shares are smashing the markets today.

Read more »

A female broker in a red jacket whispers in the ear of a man who has a surprised look on his face as she explains which two ASX 200 shares should do well in today's volatile climate
Materials Shares

2 ASX 200 lithium stocks to buy for big returns

Which stocks are analysts tipping as buys right now? Let's find out.

Read more »