Are short sellers wrong about Sayona Mining shares?

Sayona shares are highly shorted. So what's wrong with this company?

| More on:
a small child carrying a brief case tries to reach an elevator button outside closed elevator doors.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Sayona Mining is a popular ASX lithium share
  • But it is also one of the most targetted short-seller shares
  • So what do the short sellers see going wrong for Sayona?

Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) shares have a rather awkward feather in their cap this week. No, it's not today's static share price performance, which has seen Sayona remain even at 19.5 cents a share at market close.

Rather, it's Sayona's presence on the list of the most short-sold ASX shares on the market. Every week, my Fool colleague James takes stock of the ASX's most shorted shares. This week, Sayona was number four on the list, with a significant 9.3% of its shares short-sold.

Only Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP), Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1), and Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) have more of their shares shorted.

What is short selling?

When a company's shares are short-sold, it means that investors are betting against the company's future performance. A short seller borrows shares from another investor and immediately sells them, with the promise of returning them at a later date.

If, after the agreed length of time has passed, the company's shares have fallen in value, then the shorter buys them back at the lower price, returns them to their owner, and pockets the difference. As such, they prosper as the company's shares fall in price.

This practice is a little controversial and is usually only conducted by institutional investors. But it legally occurs nonetheless and gives us valuable insight into what big players in the market are thinking.

So the presence of Sayona shares on this week's most shorted shares list tells us that a significant amount of capital is being wagered on the belief the Sayona share price is in for a rough time going forward.

So those who are 'long' Sayona (have shares that aren't short-sold) might be wondering if, and indeed hoping, these short sellers are wrong.

Let's have a quick look to see if the short case stacks up.

A short seller usually believes a share is overvalued, which is why they bet that its share price will fall.

So let's look at Sayona's most recent full-year results to assess its current valuation.

Are Sayona shares overvalued?

For the 2022 financial year, Sayona reported a total of $108.87 million in revenue and other income.

On the bottom line, that translated into a net profit before tax of $83.69 million. When it comes to an earnings per share (EPS) basis, that works out to be 1.23 cents per share. At the current Sayona share price of 19.7 cents, this gives the company a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.01

This valuation might be why short sellers are so keen to have a crack at Sayona.

Most ASX resources shares trade on a P/E ratio far lower than that. For instance, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), one of the most tightly run resources companies in the world, currently has a P/E ratio of 8.7.

Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) is trading on 8.04. Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) is looking a little more expensive but is still on 10.67 right now.

So investors are paying almost twice as much for $1 of earnings with Sayona as they are with BHP. Yet BHP is vastly more mature and established.

Sayona shareholders might point to the company's exposure to forward-facing lithium, rather than 'boring' industrial metals like iron ore. But for Sayona to grow to a point that might justify its current P/E ratio, lithium prices will arguably have to rise and stay high for a very long period of time.

It's likely that the short-sellers believe this won't happen and are thus happy to place bets against its future success.

They might be right. They might be wrong. There's no way of telling just yet though.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport and Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group and Megaport. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

Miner standing in front of trucks and smiling, symbolising a rising share price.
Materials Shares

Core Lithium share price storming higher on 'excellent' exploration results

ASX investors are sending Core Lithium shares flying higher today.

Read more »

Image of young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Materials Shares

Forget Fortescue and buy this ASX mining stock for a 30%+ return

Goldman Sachs thinks this miner is a far better option for investors seeking iron ore exposure.

Read more »

Man with his hand on his face looking at a falling share price chart on a tablet.
Materials Shares

Is the beaten down Mineral Resources share price a bargain buy now?

Let's see what Bell Potter is saying about the miner after Monday's selloff.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Materials Shares

Why did the Core Lithium share price hit a wall in October?

The Core Lithium share price rally came to an abrupt end in October. But why?

Read more »

Businessman walking down staircase with suitcase, at sunrise
Materials Shares

Mineral Resources shares sink 7% on CEO exit and 'major actions'

This mining company's CEO is leaving following a scandal.

Read more »

A man wearing glasses and a white t-shirt pumps his fists in the air looking excited and happy about the rising OBX share price
Materials Shares

Why this ASX lithium stock almost doubled in value in October

This lithium miner made its shareholders smile last month. But why?

Read more »

A woman jumps for joy with a rocket drawn on the wall behind her.
Materials Shares

Guess which ASX All Ords stock just rocketed 80%

What is getting investors excited about this stock today? Let's find out.

Read more »

two businessmen shake hands in a close up mid-level shot with other businesspeople looking on approvingly in the background.
Materials Shares

Core Lithium share price higher on 'invaluable' ex-Rio Tinto appointment

The lithium miner has made a new addition

Read more »