Which 'high conviction' ASX 200 shares is this fundie backing to beat the market?

These are the ASX shares to back, according to a top fund manager.

| More on:
a man with a wide, eager smile on his face holds up three fingers.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Altium has seen an improvement in its sales cycle to clients
  • WiseTech continues to improve its software and win new subscribers
  • Wesfarmers’ upcoming lithium mine could be a big boost to earnings

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares I'm going to write about below have been backed by one of Australia's leading fund managers.

TMS Capital runs a high-conviction portfolio that is focused on long-term capital growth and tax-effective income. It aims to beat the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index (ASX: XAOA) over a rolling 5-year period.

It wants to choose companies where earnings per share (EPS) growth could beat the market over a 5-year period.

TMS Capital wants those businesses to have proven management teams, high returns on capital employed, strong balance sheets and operate in industries that are seen to have structural tailwinds.

It aims to own between 15 to 25 ASX shares. The below three ASX 200 shares are three that it likes right now.

Altium Limited (ASX: ALU)

Altium is one of the fund's biggest 10 positions. The electronic PCB design software company's FY23 half-year result was "hard to fault" according to TMS Capital.

It was noted that revenue is expected to grow by between 15% to 20%, with revenue forecast to double by 2026. The fund manager also pointed out that Altium's recurring revenue is sticky and is now 73% of total revenue.

There has been a "significant acceleration in the sales cycle" after the launch of the ASX 200 share's cloud offering Altium 365. The Altium CEO told the fund management team that the sales cycle has reduced from 6.5 weeks to 2.5 weeks.

The fund manager believes that the rapid decision-making of potential clients to sign up is a "key signal the flywheel around the platform is accelerating."

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

WiseTech is the provider of the global logistics software CargoWise. TMS Capital suggested that the growth over the past 12 months was "highly impressive".

The fund manager suggested that as a business grows, it needs to spend more on things like marketing, research and development and an increase in staff numbers to deliver that growth.

But, the WiseTech revenue growth is happening faster than cost growth. It's becoming more capital light and margins are rising, leading to rapidly growing net profit after tax (NPAT) growth.

WiseTech continues to make bolt-on acquisitions that can help the business develop and expand geographically.

It continues to offer customers a better software offering, such as its new customs platform. The ASX 200 share continues to new clients such as Kuehne and Nagel, the world's largest global freight forwarder.  

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

Wesfarmers was one of the other choices. It operates businesses like Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks.

The fund manager noted that Wesfarmers' management is optimistic that their value offerings "will benefit in an environment where consumers are watching what they're spending."

TMS Capital pointed out that the lithium mine Mt Holland is expected to come online in the second half of 2024, with a full year of earnings contributed in FY25. This mine could be "one of the ten largest lithium mines globally."

The fund manager suggested that the mine could generate over $1 billion annually for Wesfarmers. The ASX 200 share's valuation could start to factor that in at some stage, particularly if the lithium price remains robust.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Altium. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Altium and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Opinions

A businessman compares the growth trajectory of property versus shares.
Opinions

What's the outlook for shares vs. property in 2025?

The experts have put out their new year predictions...

Read more »

Cheerful boyfriend showing mobile phone to girlfriend in dining room. They are spending leisure time together at home and planning their financial future.
Opinions

My ASX share portfolio is up 30% this year! Here's my plan for 2025

The best investing plans shouldn't need too many updates.

Read more »

Man in an office celebrates at he crosses a finish line before his colleagues.
Opinions

These stocks made my share portfolio a market-beater in 2024

Beating the market is the least important takeaway from this year.

Read more »

A male investor sits at his desk looking at his laptop screen holding his hand to his chin pondering whether to buy Macquarie shares
Opinions

2 underappreciated ASX 200 shares to buy now

Investors may be undervaluing these ASX 200 shares heading into 2025, according to this expert.

Read more »

A man wearing a shirt, tie and hard hat sits in an office and marks dates in his diary.
Resources Shares

Is the BHP share price a buy? Here's my view

Is it time to dig into this beaten-up miner?

Read more »

A person holds their hands over three piggy banks, protecting and shielding their money and investments.
How to invest

I'm preparing for an ASX stock market crash in 2025

Whatever happens next year, my portfolio will be ready...

Read more »

Happy couple enjoying ice cream in retirement.
Opinions

2 ASX shares I loaded up on in November for long-term wealth

I’m excited by the dividend and capital growth potential of these stocks.

Read more »

A group of businesspeople clapping.
Opinions

My prediction for the best-performing ASX sectors in 2025

Here’s where I think the outperformers will come from.

Read more »