3 good reasons I'm avoiding ANZ shares at all costs!

I'm not banking on ANZ to be a great investment.

| More on:
A man looks at his laptop waiting in anticipation.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • ANZ might be very distracted by the attempt to acquire Suncorp Bank
  • There is intense competition in the banking space, as well as the prospect of higher bad debts
  • I don’t believe ANZ is going to deliver much long-term growth

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are not on my watchlist because of a few key factors.

ASX bank shares are going through a very interesting period of time.

I'll acknowledge that a couple of the metrics of ANZ do look compelling. Commsec numbers suggest that ANZ shares are valued at just 10 times FY23's estimated earnings with a potential grossed-up dividend yield of 9.6%.

Those numbers do seem attractive, but a cheap, high-yielding ASX share isn't necessarily going to perform strongly.

ANZ may well produce good returns from here, but there are a few reasons why I'm not looking to buy shares.

Acquisition distraction

ANZ is currently on a distracting mission to try to buy the banking division of Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN).

It's not a done deal yet. Not in the slightest. Even if the deal were to go ahead, I think the integration process would be very distracting for management. I think the next year or two is when management needs to be laser-focused on the banking settings after all of the interest rate rises.

In the ACCC's statement of preliminary views, it noted that despite the various developments and trends in Australian banking in recent years, there remain "significant regulatory and structural barriers for new entrants and smaller providers."

Despite all the effort and attention that has been put into this potential deal, there's no guarantee it's even going to go ahead.

Weakening economic picture

The last 12 months have really shaken things up.

Initially, the higher interest rates were seen to be a really good boost for the ANZ lending margins. But, there's now so much competition that this may now be harming all of the banks' profit margins.

The situation now seems to be that the lending profitability is falling and there's the prospect of higher bad debts as the effects of higher interest rates start to kick in.

If ANZ can't grow its profit any time soon, then I'm not sure what's going to drive the ANZ share price much higher from where it is today.

Let's also keep in mind that the economic picture for credit growth is fairly weak at the moment.

Low growth likely

Not only is the wider picture difficult for ANZ, but the business itself may not be able to deliver a lot of growth. Yes, there may not be much system growth.

But, for some time ANZ has been trying to catch up with its technology and systems so that it is able to offer the same approval times for loans as other lenders. If ANZ can't compete properly then it's going to miss out on the best borrowers.

ANZ has been doing a lot of work on improving its digital capabilities, but I fear that its focus on trying to buy growth with the Suncorp deal means that ANZ isn't keeping its eye on the prize.

I'm looking for businesses that can deliver more growth over the longer term, which I don't think describes ANZ.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

Three business people stand on platforms in the desert and look out through telescopes.
Bank Shares

Here's the earnings forecast out to 2029 for Bank of Queensland shares

How much profit could the bank make in future years?

Read more »

A woman faces the camera with her lip raised up to the side in total confusion.
Bank Shares

Why is the CBA share price being hit so hard today?

Has CBA's luck finally run out?

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Bank Shares

The NAB share price is at a 12-year high, these insiders are still buying

This bank is still receiving a vote of confidence after a strong run.

Read more »

Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.
Bank Shares

Are Westpac shares a good buy at close to 52-week highs?

Should investors be attracted to this major bank?

Read more »

Woman and man calculating a dividend yield.
Bank Shares

How big could the NAB shares return be in FY25?

NAB’s recent return has been extraordinary. What could happen next?

Read more »

Australian dollar $100 notes fall out of the sky, indicaticating a windfall from ASX bank shares
Bank Shares

CBA is among the biggest dividend-payers in the world. What's next?

Can the bank continue to rank at the top end of global dividend-payers?

Read more »

A woman looks questioning as she puts a coin into a piggy bank.
Bank Shares

Do ANZ shares present better value than other Big Four options?

Here's my take on whether ANZ is a good value investment right now.

Read more »

Happy man at an ATM.
Bank Shares

These ASX bank shares are cashing in on new highs today

Bank stocks are still in vogue.

Read more »