Could buying Macquarie shares at under $180 make me rich?

Financial giant Macquarie has suffered. Is this the right time to pounce?

| More on:
A man sits in deep thought with a pen held to his lips as he ponders his computer screen with a laptop open next to him on his desk in a home office environment.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Macquarie shares have fallen recently, giving investors a chance to buy at a cheaper price
  • It has very diversified earnings for a financial share – both with its geographic exposure and the services it offers
  • I think it can outperform over the long term, but I wouldn’t expect it to generate huge returns

The ASX financial share Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has declined 8% since 7 March 2023. It's currently under $180 per share.

It's unsurprising that the investment bank has suffered a fall during this short amount of time considering all of the pain relating to the global banking sector over the past month.

First, there was the collapse of venture-tech-focused bank Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) which suffered from massive withdrawals of customer deposits, leading to the bank selling bonds at a loss. Then Credit Suisse had to be taken over by UBS.

But, a key question is whether the business will be able to generate pleasing returns from here. No one can say what the future shareholder returns are going to be, but I'm going to outline why the ASX financial share can perform for investors from here.

Dividends

I think that capital growth will generate the majority of the returns for shareholders because I expect that Macquarie will be able to generate long-term earnings growth. This will help push the Macquarie share price higher.

But, the dividends from Macquarie can help some of the returns and provide cash benefits during this period of volatility.

Excluding the effects of franking credits, over the last 12 months, Macquarie has paid dividends totalling $6.50 which is a dividend yield of 3.7%.

That dividend is expected to grow in the coming years.

In FY24 the dividend is expected to rise to $6.80 per share and then in FY25, the annual dividend per share could rise to $7.20 per share, according to Commsec.

In other words, by FY25, Macquarie could be paying an annual dividend share of 4.1%. I think that the dividend can continue to rise from here.

Long-term earnings growth

One of the biggest advantages of Macquarie compared to a bank like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is its global earnings base.

The domestically focused ASX banks generate (almost) all of their earnings from Australia and New Zealand, largely from lending.

Macquarie has a very diversified group of businesses. It does have a rapidly growing Australian banking division.

But, it also has a large asset management business, Macquarie has investment banking operations and also a commodities and global markets (CGM) business.

I think Macquarie has proven to be very effective at investing in the right places to help it grow. With its global operations, Macquarie is able to invest wherever makes the most sense for its capital.

The ASX financial share is putting money into green energy, green financing and other energy transition areas, which is a very large growth area.

Macquarie says it's well-capitalised and conservatively positioned to handle whatever comes next. I think this can enable the business to outperform its ASX bank share peers.

Foolish takeaway

While the next 12 months could be uncertain for Macquarie's earnings, Commsec numbers suggest that earnings per share (EPS) could rise to $13.20 in FY25. This would put the current Macquarie share price at 13 times FY25's estimated earnings.

I think Macquarie shares can outperform the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the longer term. However, with how large the business is, I wouldn't expect it to achieve massive returns – so I think I'd go for other candidates to try to build a lot of wealth.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

A businessman carrying a briefcase looks at a square peg or block sinking into a round hole.
Earnings Results

Block shares are diving 7% despite significant profit growth in third quarter

Financial services company Block has released its 3Q FY24 report.

Read more »

A businesswoman on the phone is shocked as she looks at her watch, she's running out of time.
Dividend Investing

Want to bag the upcoming Macquarie dividend? You better hurry!

Here’s what you need to know.

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Financial Shares

IAG shares are now up 38% this year. What's next?

It's been an solid year for the stock.

Read more »

Stressed, unhappy and tired scientist with a headache working on a computer in a lab. Worried, anxious and frustrated pathologist, researcher and doctor struggling with burnout, tension and strain.
Financial Shares

Are Medibank shares a bargain buy after being sold off?

Could this be the time to pounce?

Read more »

Man looks confused as he works at his laptop. watching the Magnis share price movements
Financial Shares

Down 21% this year, are NIB shares a buy?

Could this be the turning point?

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Financial Shares

AMP share price lifts 8% in October amid improved cashflows

Investors were impressed with AMP's third-quarter report.

Read more »

Smiling man sits in front of a graph on computer while using his mobile phone.
Share Market News

This ASX All Ords stock is down 37%, and one insider just bought up over $500,000 worth

This company director just raised his stake by 1,735%.

Read more »

A young boy reaches up to touch the raindrops on his umbrella, as the sun comes out in the sky behind him.
Financial Shares

IAG share price lifts amid AGM and FY25 guidance

The insurance giant held its annual general meeting today.

Read more »