Which is the best ASX 200 iron ore stock now: BHP, Fortescue, or Mineral Resources?

Firstly, is there a bullish future for iron ore? Secondly, which stocks are the best to buy at the moment?

| More on:
Three happy miners standing with arms crossed at a quarry.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Even though the western world is bracing for an economic downturn, the massive force that is China is on the opposite point of the cycle.

The Chinese Communist Party ended its strict "zero COVID" policy late last year, so business activity is ramping up in 2023.

So does this mean iron ore is an investment worth making now, despite the dark economic clouds looming in our own backyard? 

And if so, which of the big producers listed on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is the best buy at the moment?

Shaw and Partners portfolio manager James Gerrish had some thoughts:

Is iron ore ready for a bull run?

First thing to note is that Gerrish's team is "bullish [on] the resources sector" in the medium term, inclusive of iron ore shares. 

In fact, Gerrish revealed that his portfolios already hold two ASX 200 giants. 

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) currently takes up 6% of the flagship growth portfolio, while Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) occupies 4%. BHP also has a hefty 6% weighting in his active income portfolio.

"At this stage we have no plans to reduce any of our exposure, which, by definition, is an endorsement of the sector," Gerrish told a Market Matters Q&A.

The BHP share price is down 13.2% over the past 12 months, while Mineral Resources is up a handy 30.4%.

Other professionals are somewhat divided on BHP, with 12 out of 24 analysts surveyed on CMC Markets rating it a hold.

There seems to be slightly more conviction for Mineral Resources, with eight out of 16 analysts recommending that one as a buy.

How about miners that only deal in iron ore?

However, if we're talking pure iron miners, Gerrish would buy into a stock that his portfolios currently do not hold.

"Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) looks constructive following a strong week post the global banking worries," he said.

"We can see a test of its mid-2021 highs this financial year which again is a positive read-through for the sector."

Unfortunately, Gerrish's peers unanimously disagree. 

According to CMC Markets, none of the 17 analysts who currently cover Fortescue considers it a buy. Thirteen, in fact, recommend the stock be sold.

The Fortescue share price is more than 16% down since July 2021.

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Cheerful businessman with a mining hat on the table sitting back with his arms behind his head while looking at his laptop's screen.
Resources Shares

Fortescue shares are galloping again as Twiggy stays confident in China's horsepower

It's business as usual for the miner despite Trump's promised 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.

Read more »

Miner standing at quarry looking upset
Resources Shares

This ASX All Ords mining stock sinks 13% after a rocky quarter

Investors continue unloading shares in the precious metals company.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Will ASIC make a dog's breakfast of Mineral Resources shares?

ASIC has now stuck the probe in to investigate.

Read more »

Middle age caucasian man smiling confident drinking coffee at home.
Resources Shares

Should you buy Rio Tinto stock or Woodside stock today?

Which of these giants is best? Here's what Goldman thinks.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

What does Trump's win mean for iron ore shares like Fortescue?

The controversy on tariffs has already started.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

Own BHP shares? Directors of the mining giant have been busy with stock transactions

It can be worrying when directors sell.

Read more »

Buy, hold and sell ratings written on signs on a wooden pole.
Resources Shares

Are Lynas shares a buy, sell, or hold for 2025?

Much depends on the outlook for rare earths.

Read more »

a tired and sad looking bulldog sits at an office desk with a pen an paper on it and a cup of coffee with his head resting on the desk as he gives a mournful look to the camera.
Resources Shares

After crashing 50%, could this ASX All Ords stock rebound?

Such low starting valuations could help.

Read more »