Down 27% in a month, is the Lake Resources share price finally cheap enough to buy?

One broker reckons this ASX lithium share could rise five-fold in 12 months.

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Key points

  • What a rough month -- the Lake Resources share price is down by 27% in March 
  • Headwinds buffeting the ASX lithium share include an insider sell-down and a short attack
  • One broker has a speculative buy rating and a 12-month price target of $2.52 on Lake Resources shares, with short selling activity on the stock reducing over the past two quarters 

The Lake Resources NL (ASX: LKE) share price is trading 2.1% lower at lunchtime on Friday at 46 cents.

What a shocker of a month for this ASX lithium share, which has slid 27% over the period.

By comparison, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up 0.75% today and down 1.2% for the month.

Why is the Lake Resources share price drowning?

A bearish outlook for lithium prices is one challenge, but that's universal to all ASX lithium shares.

What's unique to Lake Resources is a recent $3.9 million insider sell-down and an ongoing short attack.

As my Fool colleague James reported on Monday, Lake Resources non-executive chairman, Stu Crow, sold 7.92 million shares on-market between 17 March and 23 March.

Crow received a total consideration of $3.89 million, meaning he sold for an average price of 49.16 cents per share.

A large-scale insider sell-off tends to make investors nervous. The company sought to allay fears by issuing a statement saying the sale was made "under advice to meet personal financial obligations".

Lake said Crow was a founding shareholder and remained one of Lake's biggest private investors.

It said he still owned 10 million shares and had no intention of selling any more in the foreseeable future.

Lake Resources has also been grappling with an ongoing short attack by a United States short-selling activist group called J Capital. They don't believe Lake Resources can deliver on its targets.

Is this ASX lithium share now cheap enough to buy?

Well, if you have faith in top brokerage firm Bell Potter, then the answer is a "hell, yes".

Bell Potter thinks the Lake Resources share price could grow five-fold in the next 12 months.

The broker has a speculative buy rating on the lithium share with a price target of $2.52.

Note that the rating is speculative, though. This is Bell Potter's way of acknowledging there are risks.

Here's something that's also interesting to note.

Six months ago, Lake Resources had 10.13% of its stock shorted.

This basically means a decent number of pro traders expected the stock price to fall, so they shorted it.

Since then, the Lake Resources share price has fallen by 49.9%.

Today, 6.09% of the capital is shorted, which demonstrates a 40% reduction in short positioning on the lithium stock.

What else is going on with Lake Resources?

In its half-year accounts lodged with the ASX on 15 March, Lake Resources revealed a 1H FY23 loss of $13.46 million, up from a loss of $4.62 million in 1H FY22.

Of course, you have to take this with a grain of salt. Lake is still building its mining assets and therefore not producing any lithium to sell yet.

Lake Resources has cash and cash equivalents totalling $133 million and its liabilities total about $8 million.

Looking ahead, Lake Resources expects to complete its definitive feasibility study for producing 50,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year by the middle of 2023.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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