These ASX lithium shares are a buy despite explosive supply forecast: UBS

This broker has given its verdict on lithium shares.

A miner in a hardhat makes a sale on his tablet in the field.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • ASX lithium shares have taken a beating in recent weeks
  • But most are still up substantially over the past few years
  • So which ASX lithium shares does broker UBS rate as a buy?

By now, most ASX investors would be familiar with the runs that most ASX lithium shares have been on over the past year or two. Although the past few weeks have cruelled these companies' share prices somewhat, the fact remains that long-term investors are still sitting on some tidy profits. 

Take the ASX 200's largest lithium share, Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS). Yes, Pilbara shares have fallen more than 30% over the past two months or so, going from over $5 a share to the $3.52 we see today.

But this company still remains up 23% over the past 12 months, and up by an extraordinary 2,250% over the past three years:

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Pilbara Minerals PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.com.au

It's a similar story with Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO), Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA), Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) and Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE). To varying degrees though, of course.

For example, since the start of 2021, Sayona shares have gained an eye-watering 2,000%, rising from 1 cent per share to the 21 cents per share the company is currently going for. But Allkem shares have risen by 'only' 130% or so over the same period, going from $4.47 to the $10.28 we see today.

But after the jitters of the past few weeks, many investors might be getting spooked and tempted to take their profits off the table. So which ASX lithium shares are still worth holding today?

Well, one ASX broker has given its answer to that question.

Broker UBS names its favourite ASX lithium shares

As reported in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) today, ASX broker UBS is predicting a difficult time for lithium shares going forward.

UBS reckons that new lithium supply coming online from both China and Latin America could see the supply of the future-facing metal double between 2022 and 2025.

As anyone who's studied economics would know, increased supply usually leads to lower prices. And that's not good news for the lithium companies who sell this industrial metal.

But don't panic, not all is lost, according to UBS. The broker still maintains a buy rating on several ASX lithium shares. That's due to an expectation that "the recent collapse in lithium prices may have bottomed out".

So which lithium shares does the broker rate?

Well, it has maintained buy ratings on Allkem, Mineral Resources, and Liontown Resources. That's in addition to IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES).

Wesfarmers is not a pure-play lithium company. But the industrial and retailing conglomerate has increased its exposure to lithium in recent years.

Meanwhile, UBS has given Pilbara Minerals shares a neutral rating, in contrast to the shares named above.

So this might come as some comfort for ASX lithium investors today. But let's see what the next few months and years bring to this popular corner of the ASX.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

smiling worker stands before power generator technology
Materials Shares

Fortescue shares jump 5% on record performance

This mining giant was in fine form during the quarter.

Read more »

A man casually dressed looks to the side in a pensive, thoughtful manner with one hand under his chin, holding a mobile phone in his hand while thinking about something.
Materials Shares

Should you buy Pilbara Minerals shares today?

Let's see if analysts think investors should be buying the lithium giant's shares.

Read more »

Image of young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Materials Shares

Expert says this ASX mining stock could rise almost 30%

Let's see which miner is being tipped as a buy for investors right now.

Read more »

a mine worker holds his phone in one hand and a tablet in the other as he stands in front of heavy machinery at a mine site.
Materials Shares

BHP shares charge higher on record copper and iron ore production

Let's see how the miner performed during the fourth quarter.

Read more »

A man stands with hands on hips surveying construction of three high-rise buildings.
Materials Shares

Building activity on the rise – will ASX materials shares benefit?

New data from the March quarter shows a sharp rise in building activity. 

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Materials Shares

Macquarie predicts 11% upside for this ASX materials stock

Here's why the broker is positive on the stock.

Read more »

Miner and company person analysing results of a mining company.
Materials Shares

Rio Tinto share price falls on Q2 update

Let's see what the mining giant reported for the second quarter.

Read more »

a man in a hard hat and high visibility vest smiles as he stands in the foreground of heavy mining equipment on a mine site.
Materials Shares

Could these 3 ASX materials shares be set to double?

This broker has buy ratings and aggressive price targets for these holdings. 

Read more »