Here's how to value the Westpac share price

Here's how analysts work out that this banking giant's shares are cheap.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • Valuing bank shares isn't as simple as looking at price to earnings ratio
  • Goldman Sachs uses a couple of inputs to come up with its valuation
  • If its analysts are to be believed, Westpac shares could be dirt cheap right now

Recent events in the United States involving Silicon Valley Bank have weighed heavily on the Australian banking sector and the Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price this month.

This has left the banking giant's shares trading at $21.58, which is almost 13% lower than their 52-week high.

A grey-haired mature-aged man with glasses stands in front of a blackboard filled with mathematical workings as he holds a pad of paper in one hand and a pen in the other and stands smiling at the camera.

Image source: Getty Images

Is the Westpac share price good value right now?

In order to know if the Westpac share price is good value, we will have to find a way to undertake a valuation. Luckily, the team at Goldman Sachs has provided its valuation model to help us on our way.

Firstly, many investors like to use price to earnings ratios when valuing shares. However, this is not something that Goldman uses for bank shares. And there are strong arguments out there that this is the correct approach when looking at the sector.

Instead, its analysts use a "DCF & P/NTA vs. ROTE" valuation methodology. Don't worry if that doesn't make a lot of sense, I'll take you through it now.

The DCF stands for discounted cash flow. This is essentially the sum of all future cash flows, discounted to take account of the time value of money. On a per share basis, Goldman Sachs estimates that Westpac has a value of $29.27 on a DCF basis.

However, this only makes up 50% of its valuation methodology. So, we still have to throw in the second part: P/NTA versus ROTE.

This is the price to net tangible assets versus its sustainable return on tangible equity. The latter is the same as return on equity but excludes intangibles such as goodwill. Goldman estimates the bank's sustainable ROTE to be 12%.

In light of this ROTE, the broker believes Westpac's shares deserve to trade at 1.4x NTA. Which, based on its NTA estimate of $18.70 per share in FY 2023, equates to a figure of $26.20 per share. This will make up the remaining 50% of its valuation.

If we combine the two together, we get a valuation of $27.74 for the Westpac share price.

And with its shares currently fetching $21.58, this implies material upside of greater than 28% over the next 12 months. No wonder Goldman has the bank's shares on its conviction list with a buy rating!

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A woman looks shocked as she drinks a coffee while reading the paper.
Bank Shares

How higher interest rates could send CBA shares plunging 42%

A leading broker warns that CBA shares could tumble 42% amid RBA interest rate hikes.

Read more »

Young investor sits at desk looking happy after discovering Westpac's dividend reinvestment plan
Bank Shares

Should I invest $10,000 in Westpac shares right now?

Westpac has delivered impressive returns, but valuation matters.

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Bank Shares

Rates are rising. Are Australia's biggest bank shares still worth buying?

Rates are rising again. Can CBA’s premium valuation hold up?

Read more »

A business woman looks frustrated and angry at a huge stack of paperwork on her desk.
Bank Shares

CBA shares: 3 reasons to buy and 3 reasons to sell

The banking giant's share price is climbing higher again today.

Read more »

A man in trendy clothing sits on a bench in a shopping mall looking at his phone with interest and a surprised look on his face.
Bank Shares

$5,000 invested in NAB shares 12 months ago is already worth…

The banking giant's share price has stormed higher in 2026.

Read more »

A man in his 30s holds his laptop and operates it with his other hand as he has a look of pleasant surprise on his face as though he is learning something new or finding hidden value in something on the screen.
Bank Shares

Forget CBA shares, this ASX bank stock is tipped to soar another 70%

I'd put my money in this ASX bank stock instead.

Read more »

Australian dollar notes and coins in a till.
Dividend Investing

How many Westpac shares do I need to buy for a $10,000 annual passive income?

Westpac shares have a lengthy track record of paying two fully franked dividends every year.

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

If I invest $5,000 in NAB shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?

NAB is expected to pay another large dividend in FY27.

Read more »