Is the A2 Milk share price good value after its post-results selloff?

It has been a tough week for shareholders of this infant formula company…

| More on:
Young woman thinking with laptop open.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • A2 Milk shares have been sold off this week
  • This follows the release of the company's half year results
  • Morgans has given its verdict on the company's performance and outlook

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price has continued its slide on Tuesday.

In afternoon trade, the infant formula company's shares are down 3.5% to $6.26.

This means that A2 Milk's shares are now down 12% over the last two trading days.

Why is the A2 Milk share price being sold off?

Investors have been hitting the sell button this week in response to the company's half-year results release.

In case you missed it, for the six months ended 31 December, A2 Milk reported an 18.6% increase in revenue to NZ$783.3 million and a 22.1% jump in net profit after tax to NZ$68.5 million. The latter was comfortably ahead of the consensus estimate of NZ$60.6 million.

So why the selling? This appears to have been driven by commentary around the China market and its margins in the ANZ segment.

Morgans has been looking at the result and has given its verdict. It commented:

While management believes that A2M is very well positioned over the medium term, it was quite cautious on the China IF industry for 2023. It said A2M is moving into an increasingly challenging period, with headwinds including the rolling impact of five consecutive years of a decline in the birth rate and the market wide transition of CL [Chinese label] IF product to the new GB standard.

We remain concerned that the transition to the new GB standard may cause disruption to sales/pricing and create inventory risks (write-downs) between the timing of new and old product (consumers perceive the stock as not being fresh). Given this uncertainty, A2M's share price may be more volatile over this period.

And while Morgans believes that A2 Milk can achieve its FY 2026 sales targets, it has doubts over its ability to deliver on its margin goals. The broker adds:

A2M remains on track to achieve its ambition to grow sales to US$2bn by FY26. Management said that CL is tracking ahead of its target while EL, other nutritionals and emerging markets are a work in progress. Given EL (higher margin vs CL) is lagging and the business requires further investment, achieving an EBITDA margin of low-to-mid 20s now looks a stretch. A margin in the high teens now looks more achievable in this timeframe.

Morgans has retained its hold rating with a slightly improved price target of $6.45.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Photo of a happy couple with their car and car keys.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

What are Macquarie's top ASX All Ords picks in the automotive sector?

Aussie investors are becoming increasingly interested in auto stocks.

Read more »

basket of grocery items with smart phone ordering system
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Here's how Aldi plans to disrupt Coles and Woolworths with online shopping

Here’s Aldi’s latest move to try to win market share.

Read more »

Two male professional analysts discuss share price movements shown on the computer screen in front of them, with one pointing to a screen
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Broker tips 40-52% upside for these ASX consumer staples shares

This broker is tipping a big year ahead for these ASX shares.

Read more »

Happy couple doing online shopping.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Consumer dicretionary picks: what's Macquarie's price targets for Nick Scali and Harvey Norman shares?

This broker has a clear favourite.

Read more »

Woman presenting financial report on large screen in conference room.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Why this consumer share is up 10% on earnings guidance

This company’s shareholders have seen their holdings gain 46% in a year.

Read more »

A man and a woman line up to race through a supermarket,.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Supermarket battle: Does Macquarie see more upside for Woolworths or Coles shares?

Which stock should investors put in their shopping basket?

Read more »

Happy couple doing online shopping.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Furniture battle: Does Macquarie prefer Nick Scali or Temple & Webster shares?

Let's see which one the broker is recommending to clients.

Read more »

Woman customer and grocery shopping cart in supermarket store, retail outlet or mall shop. Female shopper pushing trolley in shelf aisle to buy discount groceries, sale goods and brand offers.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Coles stock vs. Woolworths shares: Which came out on top in FY25?

There was a clear winner in the grocery space last financial year...

Read more »