Why this US$1 trillion milestone matters for ASX 200 lithium shares

Even after smashing the benchmark returns in 2022, all but one of the blue-chip lithium shares is outpacing the ASX 200 again this year.

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Key points

  • Total global passenger EV sales topped US$1 trillion over the past decade
  • Global passenger EV sales are forecast to grow 29% in 2023
  • With 75% of the world’s consumption of lithium going into rechargeable batteries, that’s good news for ASX 200 lithium shares

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium shares have garnered plenty of investor attention due to their outsized returns. 

Even after smashing the benchmark returns in 2022, all but one of the blue-chip lithium companies is outpacing the ASX 200 again this year.

Since the opening bell on 3 January, the ASX 200 is up 6.6%.

Here's how the ASX 200 lithium shares have performed over that same period:

  • Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares are down 1.0%
  • Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) shares are up 12.4%
  • Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares are up 30.0%
  • IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares are up 7.9%
  • Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares are up 16.3%

The strong performance has been driven by soaring demand for – and the soaring price of – lithium, a critical element in most EV and home storage batteries.

While the lithium price has fallen from its 2022 record highs, the price remains elevated by historic standards. And all signs point to growing demand in the years ahead.

Which brings us to the US$1 trillion (AU$1.45 trillion) milestone.

Global spending on EVs is surging

According to a new report, published by Bloomberg, global spending on passenger EVs leapt 53% in 2022 year on year.

All told, consumers around the world splashed out US$388 billion on new passenger EVs last year.

That's good news for ASX 200 lithium shares, as approximately 75% of the world's consumption of lithium goes into rechargeable batteries.

2022's figures have now seen the total value of passenger EVs sold over the past 10 years (when EVs first began to make real inroads) hit US$1 trillion.

Granted, that's only around 4% of the total value of all passenger vehicles sold over the last decade (some US$25 trillion).

But when seeking out long-term investments, it can pay to look for these kinds of mega-growth trends with a lengthy horizon ahead of them.

Indeed, according to Bloomberg's analysis, passenger EV sales are likely to surpass US$500 billion in 2023. That represents a 29% annual growth rate.

That will see lithium demand continue to ramp up and should offer some ongoing tailwinds for ASX 200 lithium shares.

The best-performing ASX 200 lithium share over 12 months

Up top we looked at how the big lithium miners have performed so far in 2023.

But which one is leading the pack over the past 12 months?

With a nod to the runner-up, Pilbara with a 52% share price gain over 12 months, the best-performing ASX 200 lithium share for the full year is Mineral Resources.

As you can see in the chart below, the Mineral Resources share price is up a whopping 77% since this time last year.

Boom!

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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