Writing this – and expecting anyone to read it – on Christmas Eve-eve might be an optimistic thing to do.
After all, we're apparently going to spend $440 million in a single hour – between 12pm and 1pm – today.
(I can neither confirm nor deny I'll be one of the people sneaking out at lunchtime to do some last minute Christmas shopping that I should have done days ago!)
That's part of the $66 billion we're expected to spend over the Christmas period, overall – up 7% or so on last year's figure.
What slowdown, huh?
Of course, those numbers are totals, and don't show the range of circumstances for different people across our wide brown land.
Some have been doing it tough for a while. Some will see this as a 'last hurrah' of sorts, before tightening their belts in 2023. Others will go on, blissfully unimpacted.
Such, as always, is life.
That doesn't make it fair. Or okay. But, as the cool kids say, it is what it is.
Which brings me to some Christmas wishes.
This is the sort of thing that can become pretty saccharine, if you let it.
Or cynical, if you push too hard in the other direction.
You probably know I'm an optimist.
I'm also, despite occasional evidence to the contrary from public and private figures, a believer in the better angels of our nature.
Faced with the choice to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, I'll take the former, every time.
Indeed, you can't be both a pessimist and a (successful) investor.
Investing is, at its core, the act that comes from believing things will get better, in time.
And if I'm going to get scorned for being too optimistic, too positive, and for hoping for a better future for us all, then go your hardest.
I'm going to keep believing in the incredible drive of the human spirit.
Oh, we're a deeply flawed and imperfect species, for sure.
But we make things better, over time.
For every 'but what about', I'll give you two-dozen examples of the progress that we've been responsible for.
Not to negate those very reasonable concerns, but to show you that with some effort and goodwill, we have both the ability and the track record to suggest that we can overcome.
If you're offended by optimism, stop reading now. There's plenty of doom and gloom being offered by the usual suspects, if you prefer to read that, instead.
Christmas, 1939, felt pretty rough for many, as war raged.
Christmas, 1981, felt pretty ordinary, as high oil prices and rising interest rates confronted out economy.
Christmas, 1999, felt good… but the market crashed soon after.
And?
And we overcame.
We got better.
Our world is a much, much better place, today, than before any of those times, despite our current challenges.
Christmas, 2019, was to be the calm before the pandemic storm.
And it's not over.
But I have a supremely high level of confidence that we'll look back on that time, in years to come, and marvel at what we achieved in the 3, 5, 15 and 25 years since.
And I think investors will be, as a group, much richer.
And so, those wishes?
Well, I hope interest rates peak soon. Not because the pollies have said they should (they're talking out of barely-concealed self-interest), but because I hope those higher rates achieve their aim of bringing down inflation during 2023.
I hope, as inflation cools, the share market rises. Not too fast – we don't need more irrational exuberance – but in keeping with the rising potential of the companies listed on it.
I hope investors, traders and speculators manage to avoid the next bubble. The next 'hot stock', sector or commodity. The only thing worse than your neighbour getting rich while you miss out is joining him and both of you losing your shirts. There are too many examples of the latter.
I hope our politicians – whole parliaments, not just governments – make laws that improve our society and economy. For the long term. Increasing wide-spread prosperity is its own fly-wheel, creating more and more prosperity as it goes. Short-termism that favours a little money now will cost us a lot of money later – the very opposite of smart investing… and smart governance.
I hope our members and readers keep the faith. Not for our sake, but for yours. We've been here before. Countless times. But the market is higher than at those previous times, just as it was those times, too. I hope the lessons of history convince you that continuing to invest is the right thing to do.
And I hope that, as we climb to (all-but inevitable) higher heights in the future, we remember how this felt, and what comes next, so that during the next downturn we are able to more easily keep that faith.
Saccharine enough for you?
I hope so.
Because the long term future has always belonged to the optimists. Optimists with fortitude, to be sure, but optimists nonetheless.
Thank you to those of you who are Motley Fool members. Thank you to those of you who are regular – or even occasional – readers. And thank you to those who take the time to respond – to let me know where I've got it right… and wrong.
I like picking stocks. I like making money. But mostly, am I privileged to have a job that allows me to help others work toward their financial goals.
I hope 2023 takes you one year closer to yours.
Fool on!
