The Newcrest share price has rocketed 35% since late September. What's going on?

We look at what's been lifting the Newcrest share price in recent months.

| More on:
Woman holding gold bar and cheering.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Newcrest shares are up 35% since late September, including a 17% gain over the past month alone 
  • ASX gold shares have had a difficult year 
  • Newcrest told shareholders last month that it was successfully responding to inflationary pressures on its costs 

The Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) share price has shone 35% brighter since its September low.

After lunchtime on Thursday, the gold miner is trading for $21.35 per share, up 2.64% for the day.

Back in September, Newcrest shares fell to a 52-week low of $15.72.

Let's canvas what's been happening over the past few months to push the Newcrest share price higher.

Gold price up 10% since late September

In September when Newcrest shares were trading at a low, the gold price was about US$1,620 per troy ounce (t.oz). Today, it's US$1,784 t.oz. That's a 10% gain.

The price of gold has gone up for a few reasons.

Firstly, gold is benefitting from a weakening United States dollar because it is priced in US dollars.

The currency is weakening because there is the prospect of smaller incremental interest rate rises from here.

This is also a supportive factor for gold because the higher interest rates go, the less appealing gold bullion becomes to investors because it's a non-yielding asset.

Shaw and Partners senior investment advisor Jed Richards explains:

Newcrest has rallied from its lows recently on the latest US inflation figures, which were lower than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar.

In addition, a report from the World Gold Council shows strong buying activity among central banks.

As my colleague Bernd reports, central banks loaded up on gold bullion at the fastest pace ever during the third quarter of 2022. They bought $20 billion worth and this demand bumped up the gold price.

Other gold mining shares have also risen as a result. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) is up 42% since late September.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 57%. The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price has risen 57%.

It's worth noting that gold is still trading well below its 2022 high of about US$2,050 t.oz back in March.

What else has pushed Newcrest shares higher?

The company held its annual general meeting (AGM) in November. Newcrest management spoke positively about its handling of inflationary pressures.

Newcrest told shareholders it expects to contain cost growth at 6% to 8% in FY23. This is because they've implemented a series of inflation-offsetting measures. These include long-term and fixed-price contracts for maintenance, fuel, energy, and logistic costs.

ASX investors were impressed by this inflation-busting success and the Newcrest share price rose by 1.8%.

In late October, Newcrest also released a strong 1Q FY23 update and reaffirmed its FY23 production guidance.

Newcrest share price snapshot

The Newcrest share price is down 13% in the year to date. But it's currently on a roll, up 17% in the past month alone.

As my Fool colleague Tony reports, 10 of the 17 analysts surveyed on CMC Markets say Newcrest is a strong buy. This is despite the recently improved share price.

The seven others rate it as a hold. No one says sell.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

A cool man smiles as he is draped in gold cloth and wearing gold glasses.
Gold

2 of the best ASX gold stocks to buy for 2025

Analysts think that now is a golden opportunity to buy these stocks.

Read more »

A colourfully dressed young skydiver wearing heavy gold gloves smiles and gives a thumbs up as he falls through the sky.
Gold

One ASX 200 gold stock to buy now (and one to sell!)

Not all ASX 200 gold stocks are created equal.

Read more »

A woman in a business suit sits at her desk with gold bars in each hand while she kisses one bar with her eyes closed. Her desk has another three gold bars stacked in front of her. symbolising the rising Northern Star share price
Gold

The best ASX gold stocks to buy in 2025

Here's why these could be the gold stocks to buy in the new year according to the broker.

Read more »

Gold bars on top of gold coins.
Gold

After a market beating year what can investors expect from the gold price in 2025?

Can the gold price repeat its stellar performance in 2025?

Read more »

miner giving 'ok' sign in front of mine
Gold

Own Newmont shares? You could be in for a lucrative 2025

This expert is expecting big things from Newmont in 2025.

Read more »

Gold nugget with a red arrow going down.
Gold

After plunging 25%, is this ASX gold stock now cheap?

Let's dive in and see.

Read more »

Gold spelt out in gold block letters.
Gold

Will 2025 shine bright for ASX gold shares?

Will it be a golden year?

Read more »

Three people with gold streamers celebrate good news.
Gold

3 reasons to buy Northern Star shares now

This expert forecasts more gains to come from Northern Star shares in 2025.

Read more »