Could our dividends now be too reliant on ASX 200 oil shares?

Are oil shares a kickstarter to index dividends, or a fire hazard waiting to combust?

| More on:
an oil refinery worker checks her laptop computer in front of a backdrop of oil refinery infrastructure. The woman has a serious look on her face.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Global dividends increased by 7% to $415.9 billion for an all-time third-quarter record in Q3 2022
  • Oil and gas companies fuelled the bulk of dividend gains 
  • Energy shares made up 8% of total payouts in the ASX 200 in the third quarter

If there has been a winner from the global energy shortage, it would have to be oil shares. Energy elites of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) have enjoyed enormous profits as conflicts crimp the supply of the commodity.

For shareholders, it has meant a plentiful year for dividends. According to Janus Henderson's latest Global Dividend Index report, the recent third quarter was a record for global payouts — rising 7% to $415.9 billion thanks largely to oil producers.

However, it begs the question: could the delectable dividends that are being injected into Australian portfolios from oil, gas, and energy companies pose a risk to future income? After all, the commoditised sector is known for its cyclical habits.

How much of ASX 200 dividends are from oil and gas?

In the third quarter of the calendar year, oil producer dividends surged 75% to a record $46.4 billion globally. This was a byproduct of elevated oil prices compared to the prior corresponding period, as shown below.

TradingView Chart

Locally, our biggest energy company increased its interim dividend by nearly four-fold to US$1.09 per share amid the amplified prices. As a result, Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) became one of the top five dividend-payers on the ASX.

Sourcing data from S&P Market Intelligence, oil and gas companies constituted approximately 8% of the total $28.45 billion in Aussie payouts in Q3, the majority of which was delivered by Woodside.

The energy sector's contribution was bolstered by large cash drops from the likes of Santos Ltd (ASX: STO), APA Group (ASX: APA), and Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD). In total, oil and gas companies served up more than $2.2 billion in divvies to shareholders.

Notably, one in five Australian companies sliced their dividends in the third quarter. Comparatively, only one in ten companies globally reduced their payouts.

Is it too much?

Many investors rely on the dividends from the ASX 200 via index-tracking passive exchange-traded funds (ETF). Any material changes to large contributors to the index could impact future income. So, could oil and gas payouts put a dent in your next payday?

The short answer is yes, but the more nuanced answer is: it depends… At around 8% of total ASX 200 dividends, oil and gas companies are far from the most important sector when it comes to income.

Instead, banks and mining companies are responsible for the majority of income generated by an investment in the index. At least that was the case in the third quarter.

According to S&P Global, banks made up roughly 21% of payouts. Meanwhile, mining companies took the number one spot in Q3 with 45% of all dividends delivered.

It would seem the risk of falling oil and gas dividends pose a minor risk to the total ASX 200 yield. The benchmark index remains heavily exposed to other areas of the market.

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Energy Shares

a man and his small son crouch in a green field under a beautiful sunset sky looking at renewable, wind generators for energy production.
Energy Shares

Non-oil energy investments are on the rise: Here are 2 to consider

Australian investors are turning their attention to non-oil energy stocks poised for growth.

Read more »

Oil rig worker standing with a clipboard.
Energy Shares

How much upside does Macquarie tip for Woodside shares?

With shares up 23% since April, here’s Macquarie’s 12-month forecast for the Woodside share price.

Read more »

A male oil and gas mechanic wearing a white hardhat walks along a steel platform above a series of gas pipes in a gas plant.
Energy Shares

Should I buy Santos shares today amid the ongoing $30 billion takeover offer?

With the $30 billion Santos takeover offer not yet finalised, should you buy shares right now?

Read more »

Workers inspecting a gas pipeline.
Broker Notes

What's Macquarie's price target for Origin Energy shares?

Could Origin be primed for a turnaround?

Read more »

Man holding out Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Dividend Investing

With an 8% dividend yield, should I buy Woodside shares for their passive income?

A leading expert offers his take on Woodside shares and the passive income on offer.

Read more »

Two brokers analysing stocks.
Energy Shares

Santos shares push higher on takeover update

What is the latest on this potential deal? Let's find out.

Read more »

Multiracial happy young people stacking hands outside - University students hugging in college campus - Youth community concept with guys and girls standing together supporting each other.
Energy Shares

Which ASX 200 uranium stock is surging on huge news

Let's see why investors are bidding this stock higher today.

Read more »

Oil rig worker standing with a clipboard.
Economy

What does the changing oil price mean for the ASX 200?

Oil continues to wobble with the tensions seen on the world stage.

Read more »