BHP beat you to Oz Minerals? Buy this ASX 200 copper share instead: fundie

The copper stock could be trading at half of its fair value.

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Key points

  • The market's largest copper miner looks set to be snapped up by BHP
  • The iron ore giant's increased bid was accepted by Oz Minerals last week
  • Fortunately, fellow ASX 200 copper stock Sandfire Resources looks like a winner, according to this fundie

Copper has been in the spotlight in 2022, alongside other future-facing commodities like lithium and nickel. Particularly, following BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)'s takeover bid for S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper share Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL).

The iron ore giant put forward a $28.25 per share "best and final" offer for its copper counterpart earlier this week. Oz Minerals has accepted the bid.

While that might be great news for those invested in the takeover target – the offer represents a 49% premium to its last undisturbed share price – it's likely disappointing for those looking to snap up long-term copper investments. Right now, the Oz Minerals share price is just 3% lower than BHP's bid.

Indeed, Shaw and Partners senior resource analyst Peter O'Connor, speaking with Market Matters' James Gerrish, recently commented:

Everyone wants to be in copper but there's so few copper equities.

Fortunately, the expert has another copper miner in their sights. Let's take a look at the other ASX 200 copper share O'Connor believes is trading at around half of its fair value.

ASX 200 copper share tipped a winner

O'Connor has dubbed Oz Minerals a "dead duck", continuing:

For all intents and purposes, Oz is no longer trading … if you want to see a 3% return, fine, but if you want to get a return better you need to look elsewhere.

Instead, he is bullish on "international, large-scale, long-life target" Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR).

The $2 billion copper miner has been on a journey over the last few years. It's been working on its Motheo project in Botswana and recently snapped up Spain's MATSA mining complex.

And just in time. Mining activities ceased at its Western Australian DeGrussa copper mine last month.

Beyond that, the ASX 200 copper miner's share price recently soared on news of a new CEO, set to take the reins in April. Additionally, Sandfire upgraded its financial year 2023 guidance in September.

Beyond Sandfire, there might be excitement among the market's smaller copper stocks in the near future. O'Connor tipped consolidation among emerging copper miners in the coming years.  

Sandfire Resources share price snapshot

The Sandfire share price is down 25% this year to date. However, it soared 44% in November.

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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