CBA shares: Buy, hold, or fold?

Here's what brokers are expecting from stock in the ASX's biggest bank.

| More on:
A young woman sits at her desk in deep contemplation with her hand to her chin while seriously considering information she is reading on her laptop

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • The CBA share price has once again cracked the $100 mark in early trade today, recovering from its September slump
  • But most brokers are sceptical on its outlook
  • While one top broker tips the ASX 200 banking giant's stock to gain 3% amid rising dividends, another believes it could tumble 14%

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is back over the $100 mark in early trade on Wednesday.

The $169 billion S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) giant plummeted 7% over the course of September – known to be the worst month for markets. It's since picked itself up by the bootstraps, lifting 10% so far this month.

The CBA share price closed at $99.78 on Tuesday and, at the time of writing, is $100.69, a rise of 0.91%.

But with such a recovery under its belt, does the banking giant's stock still offer investors upside?

Is now a good time to buy CBA shares?

CBA is the ASX 200's biggest bank and a resoundingly popular share. But optimistic experts are few and far between.

JP Morgan is said to believe the banking giant "offers the best leverage to rising rates and has the most defensive loan book". For that reason, the broker commented:

We struggle to see CBA underperforming its peers meaningfully.

Rate hikes, like the six implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year, let banks reprice their loan offerings, thereby increasing their net interest margins (NIM) and, in turn, their profits. Though, rising rates also bring risks for banks' loan books.

On a less positive note, CBA is JP Morgans' least preferred ASX 200 bank, as my Fool colleague Bronwyn reports.

Turning to other brokers, Credit Suisse had a $102.80 price target and a neutral rating on the biggest bank's stock late last month, my colleague James reports. That represents a potential 3% upside.

The broker also expects CBA to grow its dividends, tipping it to pay out $4.25 per share in financial year 2023. That would mark a 10% increase on the $3.85 per share CBA paid in financial year 2022.

Turning to the bears, Goldman Sachs rates the stock a sell while Morgan Stanley is said to have slapped it with an $85.50 price target, according to Livewire, representing a potential 14% downside.

Morgan Stanley is also said to be sceptical of the entire banking sector, expecting rate hikes and fiscal consolidation to continue for longer than previously predicted.

Finally, as my Fool colleague Zach covered in depth yesterday, CBA is both the most profitable ASX 200 bank share and the most expensive. It's trading with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 18.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

A group of young ASX investors sitting around a laptop with an older lady standing behind them explaining how investing works.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

Three analysts look at tech options on a wall screen
Technology Shares

Up 70%, is it too late to invest in Xero shares?

This ASX tech darling hit a new all-time share price record yesterday.

Read more »

Four people on the beach leap high into the air.
Broker Notes

4 ASX All Ords shares offering 10% to 30% annual growth: brokers

These ASX All Ords stocks have caught the eye of brokers this week.

Read more »

A young woman lifts her red glasses with one hand as she takes a closer look at news about interest rates rising and one expert's surprising recommendation as to which ASX shares to buy
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »

A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles while at laptop.
Broker Notes

Here are 2 ASX shares that Morgans rates as buys

Let's see why the broker is feeling bullish on these stocks.

Read more »

A smiling businessman in the city looks at his phone and punches the air in celebration of good news.
Broker Notes

Guess which ASX 200 stock was just upgraded to a buy rating

Why did the broker just turn bullish? Let's find out.

Read more »

Two brokers analysing stocks.
Broker Notes

Don't miss these changes to broker ratings on ASX shares

The verdicts are in.

Read more »