Down 7% in a month, is the Macquarie share price an ASX 200 bargain buy?

Can Macquarie shares catch another bid? Let's check their outlook.

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Key points

  • The Macquarie share price is up more than 4% on Tuesday
  • Investors have pushed the share towards 52-week lows yet brokers are still bullish
  • The Macquarie share price is down almost 22% this year to date

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price is up more than 4% at $160.51 in Tuesday afternoon trading.

After eclipsing the $200 per share mark in 2021, the investment bank's share price has taken a beating over the past 12 months.

As seen on the chart below, Macquarie has tracked the S&P/ASX 200 Banks index (ASX: XBK) and the Vaneck Australian Banks ETF (ASX: MVB) over much of this time.

However, of late, it has broken away from its banking peers to the downside and now trades near 52-week lows.

TradingView Chart

Is Macquarie a buy?

That's the question on many ASX 200 investors' minds right now. As an insight, we've looked at some of the numbers.

Compared to its peers, Macquarie stacks up quite well, as seen in the chart below,

Company NameP/EROE %Debt to Equity %P/Book Net Income Margin %
Macquarie Group Ltd12.5318.0%487.6%1.9935.9%
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd11.4010.9%207.9%1.1635.2%
Commonwealth Bank of Australia18.1212.8%250.8%2.2941.5%
National Australia Bank Ltd15.3811.1%310.2%1.6240.2%
Westpac Banking Corp17.107.4%279.8%1.1726.1%
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd11.067.5%196.9%0.7230.0%
Bank of Queensland Ltd13.296.6%274.3%0.7425.9%
Median 13.2911%274%1.1735.2%
Compiled with data from company filings

Macquarie currently trades below the median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.3 times.

It also delivered an above-peer return on equity (ROE) of 18% and isn't too far off the group's price-to-book (P/B) ratio at 1.99 times.

However, Macquarie's debt load relative to shareholder equity is particularly high, coming in at more than 487% – almost double that of the banking majors' median score.

Hence, questions arise on the investment bank's sensitivity to increasing interest rates and what it is doing to hedge this exposure.

What do the experts say?

Nevertheless, the share has some interesting characteristics and this would likely be why 10 out of the 14 brokers covering Macquarie rate it as a buy right now, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

As seen in the table below, only four brokers currently rate it as a hold or sell, down from previous months.

The consensus price target is $198 a share, not too far from the consensus valuation in July of $205 a share.

Recommendation 18-Jul-202218-Aug-202218-Sep-2022Current
Buy99910
Hold3332
Sell2222
Consensus Price Target [$]205.15198.46199.54198.29

As a result, it appears sentiment remains bullish on the Macquarie share price, despite its pullback.

Whether or not this translates to a successful outcome, we'll have to wait and see.

The Macquarie share price is down 22% this year to date.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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