ANZ shares: Buy, hold, or fold?

We see what the experts are saying about the bank's outlook.

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Key points

  • The ANZ share price has trailed those of its big four banking peers so far this year, falling around 9% to $25.68
  • But many experts are bullish, expecting big things from the bank's Suncorp merger and NIMs
  • One top broker is tipping the stock to surge 13%

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price has underperformed all the bank's big four peers through 2022 so far.

Stock in the smallest of the four banks has dumped around 9% since the start of this year. The ANZ share price is trading at $25.68 right now.

For comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has fallen 12.5% year to date.

Does its recent slump put the ANZ share price in the buy zone? Let's take a look at what experts are predicting for the stock's future.

Is now a good time to snap up ANZ shares?

There are two major themes when it comes to experts' outlooks for the ANZ share price. They are net interest margins (NIMs) and the bank's $4.9 billion takeover of Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)'s banking business.

Let's start with the former. A bank's NIM represents the difference between the income it receives from interest on loans and the interest it pays out to deposit holders. This can be recalibrated when rates are hiked, as they have been in 2022.

ANZ's fellow ASX 200 bank, Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ), revealed its NIM had leapt to 1.81% in the final quarter of financial year 2022 earlier this week.

In response, JP Morgan is said to have upgraded its outlook for the banking sector, my Fool colleague Bronwyn reports. ANZ is the broker's second favourite banking pick, behind National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).

The market will likely be watching the metric closely when ANZ reports later this month.

Meanwhile, Baker Young's Toby Grimm recently tipped ANZ as the best value ASX 200 big four bank buy, saying it offers the lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and highest dividend yield, as per The Bull.

Grimm also liked the bank's planned acquisition of Suncorp Bank as it "reduces risk and supports medium-term growth".

And Citi is bullish on the ANZ share price due to both its potential NIM growth and its takeover, tipping it to lift to $29, as my colleague James reports. That represents a potential 13% upside.

The top broker also expects the bank to up its dividends in coming years.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is neutral on ANZ shares, slapping the stock with a $26.36 price target.

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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