South32 share price drops on broker downgrade

South32 shares are underperforming on Tuesday…

| More on:
a man in high visibility shirt and hard hat with full beard looks downcast with eyes lowered as though he is disappointed or sad.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

sdf

The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price is having a subdued day.

At the time of writing, the mining giant's shares are down over 1% to $3.72.

This compares unfavourably to the S&P/ASX 200 Materials sector, which is up 1.4% currently.

Why is the South32 share price underperforming?

The South32 share price has come under pressure today after the company lost one of its biggest bulls.

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts have downgraded the miner's shares to a neutral rating and cut the price target on them by 21% to $3.70.

This price target is broadly in line with where the company's shares trading at present.

Why did Goldman downgrade its shares?

Goldman made the move after reducing its earnings estimate materially through to FY 2025.

The broker's EBITDA estimates have been reduced by 29% in FY 2023, 26% in FY 2024, and 34% in FY 2025 to reflect lower base metal price forecasts. It explains:

Downgrade S32 to Neutral (from Buy) based on our revised lower NAV valuation of A$3.78/sh and PT of A$3.7/sh on the back of our base metal price downgrades resulting in a modest FCF yield of just 3% in FY23E.

[W]e forecast a ~80% drop in EBITDA in FY23 on lower base metals prices and a FCF yield of just 3% despite a forecast ~10% increase in Cu Eq production, but an attractive 16% FCF yield in FY24 driven mostly by our expected recovery in base metal prices. For FY23, we forecast a sharp contraction in aluminium EBITDA from over US$1bn in FY22 to just ~US$300mn in FY23 on lower prices and elevated costs at the Hillside and Mozal smelters.

In light of this, the broker sees more value in fellow diversified miners BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Limited (AX: RIO) and is recommending them as buys.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A group of people in suits and hard hats celebrate the rising share price with champagne.
Materials Shares

This ASX mining stock is jumping 11% on big news

This miner is having a good session on Thursday. Let's find out why.

Read more »

Lion leaping with mouth open, symbolising a rising Liontown share price.
Materials Shares

Why is the Liontown share price leaping 9% on Tuesday?

This ASX lithium share is the fastest mover of the ASX 200 today.

Read more »

A man slumps crankily over his morning coffee as it pours with rain outside.
Materials Shares

Why is this ASX 300 lithium stock sinking 17% today?

What's going on with this lithium stock today? Let's find out.

Read more »

Man holding a calculator with Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Materials Shares

$10k invested in Pilbara Minerals shares 5 years ago is now worth…

Let's see if this lithium miner delivered the goods for investors.

Read more »

Female miner in hard hat and safety vest on laptop with mining drill in background.
Broker Notes

Experts reveal 2 buys and 1 sell in the ASX 200 materials sector

And they're not all mining companies, either.

Read more »

A woman jumps for joy with a rocket drawn on the wall behind her.
Materials Shares

Pilbara Minerals shares jumps 10% on big news

This lithium miner is having a day to remember on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »

Three miners looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Why Bell Potter says this ASX mining stock is a top buy

Let's see which stock the broker is tipping to deliver big returns.

Read more »

A man holds his hand under his chin as he concentrates on his laptop screen and reads about the ANZ share price
Materials Shares

Down 39% in a year, why IGO shares still look overpriced

A leading expert doesn’t believe IGO shares are out of the woods just yet.

Read more »