Macquarie says Zip share price has further to fall

Macquarie analysts have run their slide rule across the most recent app traffic data for a range of BNPL shares.

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A wide-eyed man peers out from a small gap in his black zipped jumper conveying fear over the weak Zip share price

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The Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) share price is dipping lower today, down 0.8%.

The ASX buy now, pay later (BNPL) stock closed yesterday at 63 cents and is currently swapping hands for 62.5 cents per share.

That's a far cry from the $12.35 the Zip share price hit back in-mid February last year.

But even after that long, hard fall, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believe the payments company is still overvalued.

What did Macquarie report?

Macquarie analysts have run their slide rule across the most recent app traffic data for a range of BNPL shares.

And, as The Australian Financial Review reported, Zip didn't come out on top.

According to Macquarie, Zip was among the "BNPL operators [that] have recorded moderating or declining growth during CY22".

The analysts hit the stock with an underperform rating, with a 60-cent target for the Zip share price. That suggests another 4% decline from the current price.

What's been happening with the Zip share price?

It's been a tough year across the BNPL space, and the Zip share price has certainly been no exception.

Pressured by fast-rising inflation and interest rates, shares are down a painful 85% year-to-date.

With the company's market cap having tumbled to some $440 million, Zip was booted from the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) on 19 September as part of the S&P Dow Jones Indices September quarterly review. The Zip share price has tumbled 24% since its exit from the benchmark index.

Trading outside of the ASX 200 can throw up some tailwinds for shares. That's partly because a lot of fund managers are limited to trading the top 200 stocks, and won't be able to buy shares anymore. Those fund managers already holding Zip shares prior to the company's exclusion from the benchmark index may have been forced to sell them.

While Zip still does receive a fair amount of media attention, stocks within the ASX 200 tend to get superior analyst coverage and are more likely to make mainstream media headlines.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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