Down 9% in a month, could the Woolworths share price turn around in October?

What's in store for shares of the supermarket giant?

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A female Woolworths customer leans on her shopping trolley as she rests her chin in her hand thinking about what to buy for dinner while also wondering why the Woolworths share price isn't doing as well as Coles recently

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Key points

  • Woolworths shares have been in the red lately 
  • However, some analysts believe the supermarket giant's shares can rise, despite interest rate rises squeezing consumer spending
  • The Woolworths share price has fallen more than 12% year to date 

The Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) share price struggled in September, but could there be better days ahead?

Woolworths shares have fallen 9.49% since market close on 6 September and are currently trading at $33.35 apiece. For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has lost 0.18% over the same time frame.

Let's check the outlook for the Woolworths share price.

Could the Woolworths share price rise?

Woolworths is not the only ASX consumer share to fall in the past month. The Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) share price has descended nearly 7% since market close on 6 September, while Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) has lost nearly 2%.

Amid higher interest rates, average daily spending on groceries fell by 19% in September, The Age reported. However, Jarden believes Woolworths can weather the storm. In comments cited by the publication, Jarden said:

The value shopper is returning and Aldi is forecast to be the second-fastest growing retailer over the next 12 months, with Woolworths number one.

We remain cautious on the outlook for the consumer and believe staples and fast-moving consumer goods should perform well against this backdrop

In the 2022 financial year, Woolworths' net profit after tax (NPAT) increased by 0.7% to $1,514 million while group sales lifted 9.2%. Woolworths paid a final dividend of 53 cents per share.

Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs are positive on the outlook for the Woolworths share price. Goldman has placed a $44.10 price target on the company's shares. This represents a 32% upside on the current share price. The broker thinks Woolworths shares are trading at an attractive level after their recent falls.

However, Alto Capital investment manager Tony Locantro has recently placed a sell rating on Woolworths. He said in comments published on The Bull:

While cost pressures have eased, we're concerned about the impact from broad cost of living increases on its customers moving forward.

Share price snapshot

The Woolworths share price has fallen nearly 15% in the past year, while it has lost more than 12% in 2022 so far.

For perspective, the ASX 200 has shed more than 6% in the past year.

Woolworths has a market capitalisation of nearly $40.5 billion based on the current share price.

Motley Fool contributor Monica O'Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended COLESGROUP DEF SET and Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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