The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price was out of form in September.
During the month, the mining giant's shares lost 5.1% of their value to end the period at $38.52.
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Why did the BHP share price tumble in September?
The BHP share price came under pressure in September amid broad market weakness after rising rates sparked fears of a global recession.
A global recession could be bad news for BHP and other mining shares. That's because it has the potential to lead to softening demand for commodities, which could in turn put pressure on prices and ultimately mining profits and dividends.
It is worth noting, though, that the BHP share price actually outperformed the ASX 200 index last month, which lost a very disappointing 7.3% of its value.
This relative outperformance is likely to have been driven by BHP's exposure to one booming commodity – coal.
With coal prices rising to sky high levels and tipped to remain that way for some time to come, some investors are betting on BHP's earnings holding up despite the current uncertain economic environment.
Are BHP's shares a buy?
One leading broker that sees a lot of value in the BHP share price is Macquarie.
Late last month, the broker retained its outperform rating and lifted its price target on the miner's shares to $44.00. This implies potential upside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months.
Macquarie made the move after upgrading its earnings estimates for BHP by approximately 5% through to FY 2026 to reflect higher coal prices.
Another positive is that Macquarie is expecting the Big Australian to pay a fully franked dividend of ~$2.60 per share in FY 2023. This equates to a 6.75% dividend yield, which stretches the total potential return to almost 21%.
