Coles shares: Buy, hold, or fold?

Here's why one broker is tipping the Coles share price to gain 22%.

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Key points
  • The Coles share price has tumbled 8% so far this year to trade at $16.43
  • Though, that leaves it having outperformed both the company's sector and the broader market
  • But broker opinions on the future of the supermarket stock are mixed 

This year has been a rocky one for S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) consumer staples share Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL).

At one point, the supermarket operator's stock had gained 8% year to date. However, after dumping 4.6% on the release of its full-year earnings, it has plunged into the red.

Right now, the Coles share price is $16.43, 8.2% lower than it was at the start of 2022.

Though, that marks a better performance than the ASX 200. The index has slumped 14.7% year to date, while the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) has dumped 9.6%.

Does the stock look set to continue outperforming then? Well, that depends on who you ask.

A group of people sit around a table playing cards in a work office style setting.

Image source: Getty Images

Could Coles shares really offer 22% upside?

The Coles share price could be gearing up to either rise or dive, with various brokers tipping it to head in different directions.

Batting for the bears is Goldman Sachs. The broker has hit Coles shares with a $15.60 price target and a sell rating – representing a potential 5% downside.

It believes the company "remains a laggard in digital transformation", potentially leading to market share losses and further pressure on margins.

And the $300 million sale of its Coles Express business did nothing to quell the broker's concerns, with Goldman Sachs saying the deal is immaterial.

Morgans, however, disagrees.

It thinks Coles will be able to focus more attention on its core business following the sale, which will result in greater balance sheet capacity, my Fool colleague James reports.

Meanwhile, Citi is said to believe the sale's proceeds could help the company expand its supermarket network and continue its store renewal program.

The bullish brokers have both slapped Coles shares with buy ratings. Morgans has slapped the stock with $20 price target while Citi goes one better, tipping it to reach $20.10.

That suggests a potential upside of as much as 22%.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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