The A2 Milk share price has smashed the ASX 200 over the past month. What's going on?

The fresh milk and infant formula company looks to be turning things around after struggling with pandemic border closures.

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Key points

  • The A2 Milk share price has outperformed this past month
  • The company released some strong FY22 results in late August, beating consensus expectations
  • A2 Milk forecasts single-digit revenue growth in FY23

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price is down 0.93% so far today.

A2 Milk shares closed yesterday trading for $5.35 and are currently trading for $5.30 apiece.

That's today's price action.

Now, why has the A2 Milk share price smashed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over this past month's trading?

Why is the A2 Milk share price outperforming over the month?

On 26 August, the fresh milk and infant formula company closed the session at $4.91 per share. That puts the A2 Milk share price up 8% over the past 22 trading days. A feat that's particularly noteworthy given ASX 200 has lost 8% over that same period,

So, what's been stoking ASX investor interest?

As you're likely aware, the A2 Milk share price hasn't exactly been a stellar performer over the past two years.

The company managed to shrug off the worst of the pandemic-fuelled sell-off in February and March 2020. But it came under heavy pressure commencing in August 2020, in part because border lockdowns brought a virtual end to its lucrative Daigou buying segment. Shares are down more than 72% since then.

But the company's FY22 results, released on 29 August, look to have buoyed analyst and investor sentiment alike.

Among the highlights, the company reported a 19.8% increase in revenue to NZ$1.45 billion, some 5% above consensus expectations.

Net profit after tax (NPAT) also leapt 42.3% to NZ$114.7 million.

Meanwhile, management reported plans for a NZ$150 million on-market share buyback.

And if that wasn't enough to boost interest in A2 Milk, the company offered some positive guidance for FY23, forecasting high single-digit revenue growth.

What are the experts saying?

Some positive analyst coverage since reporting its FY22 results has also likely helped lift the A2 Milk share price.

Perpetual Equity Investment Company (ASX: PIC) was particularly impressed by the 40% revenue growth of the company's China Label infant formula business.

Perpetual noted that A2 Milk "is one of the only international brands to deliver growth during this period", adding that the strong sales lift from "in-country marketing demonstrates the strength of the brand". Perpetual also lauded the company for "shifting volumes away from the volatile Daigou distribution channel".

Wilson Asset Management's senior equity analyst Shaun Weick is also bullish, noting A2 Milk's single-digit revenue growth guidance "looks very achievable".

Weick also pointed to the company's strong financial position alongside the share buyback as positives:

They've got a billion dollars in net cash on the balance sheet. They've initiated a $150 million buyback… So that's sort of the next catalyst we're looking for there.

A2 Milk share price snapshot

With the past month's strong run behind it, the A2 Milk share price is down 5.0% in 2022. That compares to a calendar year loss of 14.3% posted by the ASX 200.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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