NAB shares: Boring or beautiful?

Bank shares have definitely struggled in 2022.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • National Australia Bank shares have gained around 3% year to date
  • The bank reported a strong first-half performance
  • NAB shares are trading at a premium to the bank's peers

Shares of banking major National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) have left plenty to be desired in 2022.

In what's traditionally a supportive economic climate for banks – higher interest rates, strong historical mortgage growth, downturn in business cycle – NAB hasn't managed to step up to the plate this year.

Instead, the share has covered a large range and only secured around a 3% gain year to date.

A man clasps his hands together while he looks upwards and sideways pondering how the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF performed in the 2022 financial year

Image source: Getty Images

What's to like about NAB?

The banking major secured a strong first-half performance, growing interest income to $7.1 billion with total revenue of $8.23 billion, each up roughly 2% from the previous half.

Meanwhile, the return on equity (ROE) was 11.1%, around 60 basis points higher than the six months prior.

Hence, the bank enters the remainder of 2022 both well capitalised and in a profitable position.

Not to mention, on its current market capitalisation of $94.7 billion, NAB certainly has the size factor that may help smooth volatility for equity investors' portfolios.

It also trades on a trailing 4.7% dividend yield and is forecast to deliver a $1.50 per share dividend in FY23 and $1.70 per share in FY24, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

At the current market cap, this represents a 5% and 5.7% forward dividend yield, respectively.

There are also no questions over the bank's financial health either. NAB's capital adequacy ratios – Tier 1, Core Tier 1, and Tier 2 figures – are within satisfactory ranges with no volatility in recent years.

It's not all so rosy…

So, the above illustrates that NAB is perhaps a great company [on financial reporting metrics] but we are investors and need to understand if the great company is also a great investment.

One important factor to consider is the bank's corporate value, made up of its earnings and investments. We record these in shorthand using ratios.

Below is a table that compares National Australia Bank to the other banking majors:

NameP/EEstimated forward P/EDividends
per share
Div. Yld (%)Price to bookPrice to sales
National Australia
Bank Ltd
15.9313.972.006.681.515.58
Sector average 11.159.551.159.482.963.07
Group median11.279.130.608.911.052.88
Commonwealth Bank of Australia17.4017.625.505.842.206.35
National Australia Bank 15.9313.972.006.681.515.58
Westpac Banking Corp15.6310.831.738.031.053.51
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd11.559.902.048.671.113.68
Bendigo and Adelaide
Bank Ltd
10.9610.480.768.910.722.81
Bank of Queensland Ltd10.988.850.639.160.723.42
NAB's Premium/Discount to Group41.4% 53.0%not
comparable
-25.1%44.1%93.5%
(Table: Author's own)

As can be seen, the share trades at a premium to peers within its peer group based on the metrics above.

It's fair to ask what kind of bang NAB investors are getting for their buck as, ideally, one would like to be paying a discount to access the bank's strengths, not a premium.

There are also macroeconomic headwinds that must be considered in the investment debate. There is no denying that a downturn in the Australian economy could spell further losses for NAB shares, particularly given the bank's significant exposure to the domestic mortgage market.

This is coupled with higher lending rates from the banks. Although that should theoretically lift net interest income, given increased competition within the Australian mortgage market, the margin on this income has thinned.

In terms of valuation, NAB shares are trading at a premium to the bank's peers (unjustifiably so), however, recent earnings trends to date have been strong.

Meanwhile, the NAB share price is floating today and is currently down 0.63% to $29.77.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A man in a business suit peers through binoculars as two businesswomen stand beside him looking straight ahead at the camera.
Bank Shares

3 Australian bank stocks that could outperform global peers again in 2026 and 2027

These are my three top picks.

Read more »

View from below of a banker jumping for joy in the CBD surrounded by high-rise office buildings.
Bank Shares

Up 19% in 7 weeks, are CBA shares a good buy today?

A leading investment expert delivers his outlook on CBA's surging shares.

Read more »

A man is shocked about the explosion happening out of his brain.
Bank Shares

Forget NAB shares, this ASX fintech stock could double in value

Most brokers see downside for NAB, but upside of up to 185% for this ASX share.

Read more »

A young man looks like he his thinking holding his hand to his chin and gazing off to the side amid a backdrop of hand drawn lightbulbs that are lit up on a chalkboard.
Bank Shares

What next for CBA shares after expectations-busting results?

The banking giant's shares are flying high.

Read more »

A young female ASX investor sits at her desk with her fists raised in excitement as she reads about rising ASX share prices on her laptop.
Bank Shares

How much have investors made in big four bank shares over the past year?

Once again, ASX bank stocks are proving a strong investment.

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Bank Shares

How the CBA share price rocketed 17% in February

CBA shares stormed higher in February, even with the big four bank stock trading ex-dividend.

Read more »

A group of young people celebrate and party outside.
Bank Shares

Is the party over for the CBA share price?

Here's what analysts think will happen to the stock from here.

Read more »

Buy, hold, and sell ratings written on signs on a wooden pole.
Bank Shares

Are Westpac shares a buy after the bank's positive earnings results?

A leading investment expert offers his outlook for the outperforming Westpac share price.

Read more »