The world can be a frightening place at the best of times, but uncertainty has dominated even more than usual in 2022.
First there were inflation and interest rates fears, then Russian troops invaded Ukraine, followed by oil and gas prices skyrocketing. Then came the actual interest rate rises, recession fears and second-guessing when central banks might stop the pain.
All this anxiety has caused most non-mining ASX shares to tumble in value over the year.
There was some relief over July and August, but much of those gains have been forfeited since and, overall, everyone's portfolios are well down on where they were a year ago.
And, most critically, no one knows what's going to happen next.
Was the July-August rally a dead cat bounce? Or was it the start of a new bull run?
Will the Reserve Bank and United States Federal Reserve stop raising rates at the end of the year? Early next year? End of 2023?
It's not surprising many investors are confused about what they should do.
It's always darkest before dawn
Forager Funds chief investment officer Steve Johnson confirmed in a memo to clients that uncertainty paralysis is widespread at the moment.
"Are you waiting for clarity before putting more money into the market? Keen to see what happens with inflation and interest rates before investing more in volatile equities?
"You aren't on your own. It's the most common feedback we hear from investors at the moment. Everyone wants to wait and see."
But he warned that only disappointment awaits those who remain idle.
He shared a quote from CMO founder Jeremy Grantham in his March 2009 letter to investors in the midst of the global financial crisis:
The tide doesn't turn when there's light at the end of the tunnel. The tide turns when it's pitch black, just a shade less pitch black than the day before.
Those words are forever seared into Johnson's brain.
"For those who don't remember, the world economy was staring down the prospect of another great depression," he said.
"Six months later the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) of US-listed stocks was up 51%. Australia's All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) had risen 48%."
He pointed out that all these spectacular climbs came well before the cloud over the economy had moved away.
"We were well into 2010 before the risk of economic meltdown had abated. Yet all of the gains came before the coast was clear."
So by sitting and waiting, those non-investors could miss out on a once-in-a-decade rally before they even realise what's happened.
By the time uncertainty clears, it's too late
Johnson made it clear that his team does not pretend to know whether the worst is behind the share markets.
"Trying to pick the top or bottom of the markets is nigh on impossible," he said.
"If you do want to nail it, though, history has shown that waiting for less uncertainty is not going to help. You need to pick the point of maximum pessimism, the point where uncertainty is at its peak."
By the time the economic and geopolitical uncertainties have resolved themselves, it'll be too late. ASX shares, as a barometer of the future, will have already made their chunkiest gains.
"Whether this is a false dawn or the real one, you don't get to wait until the sun comes up and still get to buy cheap stocks," said Johnson.
"We believe it is uncertainty that creates the opportunity and, the second the uncertainty disappears, the opportunities disappear with it."
He added that already many ASX shares in Forager's funds are trading much higher than their 2022 troughs.
Private capital seems to realise that there are bargains to be had on the ASX.
"On the ASX, two holdings in the Forager Australian Shares Fund have been subject to takeovers in August," said Johnson.
"Don't let uncertainty be the thing that holds you back from great long-term investments."
