Down 24% since April, have investors fallen out of love with Lynas shares?

Has the former favourite's moment in the sun come to an end?

| More on:
A girl stands at a wooden fence holding a big, inflated balloon looking at dark clouds looming ominously behind her.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • The Lynas share price has struggled through 2022 so far after putting on a star performance last year
  • Could its year-to-date tumble relate to easing rare earths prices and the company's rising costs? 
  • One market commentator has slapped the stock with a sell rating on this basis

The Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price has had a rough trot of late. It has tumbled 24% from its April peak of $11.59.

At the time of writing, the Lynas share price is trading at $8.805, 0.8% lower than its previous close.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is falling 2% right now.

Has the market turned on the Lynas share price following last year's mammoth 155% surge?

Let's take a look.

Has the Lynas share price's moment in the sun ended?

The Lynas share price was one of the 2021 stars of the ASX 200, launching 155% over the course of last year. But the market appears to have turned on the rare earths giant in 2022.

And Fat Prophets founder and CEO Angus Geddes says he knows why.

Geddes told The Bull that the stock's monumental rise was driven by soaring rare earths prices. But the value of rare earths has begun to ease amid inflationary pressures.

On top of that, he said the company's sales are slowing while its costs are rising. Its cash costs reportedly jumped 35% to $341 million last financial year.

As my Fool colleague Tony Yoo reported last week, the company's latest earnings saw its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio more than halve.

The company sold 15,263 tonnes of rare earths oxide in financial year 2022, marking a 7% year-over-year fall. Meanwhile, its cost of sales lifted 15% to $348.4 million.

However, Lynas' average realised price last financial year was $60.3 per kilogram – a 102% improvement – which saw its cash receipts lift 84% to $855 million. The company's production volume also rose 1% to 15,970 tonnes.

If prices have eased as Geddes notes, Lynas' bottom line may receive a notable dint with the impact potentially reverberating through to its share price. He has slapped Lynas shares with a sell recommendation.

But not all experts agree with the negative assessment.

Datt Capital chief investment officer Emanuel Datt said Lynas is "the gold standard" when it comes to producers of the minerals, as Yoo reported earlier this week.

The fundie also warned that China could restrict supply of rare earths, likely causing a global shortage that could see prices soar.

The Lynas share price is down 20% year to date. Though, it has gained 30% since this time last year.

Meanwhile, the ASX 200 has dumped 10% year to date and 9% over the past 12 months.

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A woman sits at her computer with her hand to her mouth and a contemplative smile on her face as she reads about the performance of Allkem shares on her computer
Materials Shares

This $9.3 billion ASX 200 stock just surged 7%. Here's why

This ASX 200 stock seems to be acting as a safe haven today.

Read more »

A woman jumps for joy with a rocket drawn on the wall behind her.
Materials Shares

Why is this ASX 300 battery tech stock jumping 11% today?

Another agreement and big plans are getting investors excited on Monday.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

'I hate what I have done': Mineral Resources share price down as Ellison laments actions

Managing Director Chris Ellison says he deeply regrets the impact of his 'error of judgement'.

Read more »

A bearded man holds both arms up diagonally and points with his index fingers to the sky with a thrilled look on his face over these rising Tassal share price
Materials Shares

Why is this ASX lithium stock jumping to a 52-week high today?

This lithium stock is smashing the market this year despite all the doom and gloom in the industry.

Read more »

Projection of two hands being shaken on a deal.
Materials Shares

Sayona Mining shares sink 13% on Piedmont Lithium merger news and capital raise

This merger will create the largest lithium producer in North America.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Down 28% in 2024, why this ASX 200 lithium stock could now be 'deeply undervalued'

The ASX 200 lithium stock has drawn plenty of investor attention over the past month.

Read more »

Image from either construction, mining or the oil industry of a friendly worker.
Materials Shares

Buy BHP shares for a 20%+ return

Goldman Sachs expects big total returns from this mining giant.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Here's why ASX uranium shares are ripping higher today

Uranium shares are smashing the markets today.

Read more »