Up 13% in a month, is the Santos share price still attractive?

Santos shares have caught a bid in August.

| More on:
A miner in visibility gear and hard hat looks seriously at an iPad device in a field where oil mining equipment is visible in the background.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Santos shares have been overlooked for other players in the space
  • Some brokers reckon Santos presents as a value proposition and see the share price as attractive
  • In the past 12 months the Santos share price has gained 29%

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price is up 2.7% to $7.93 in afternoon trading on Thursday.

It has gained 13.45% over the past month of trade, including a significant surge from 18 August.

As oil markets continue to cool down, investors have been shy about rewarding resource players such as Santos. However, natural gas futures remain buoyant.

Brent Crude oil now trades up 2.3% over the month. European and United Kingdom gas contracts are up 65% and 71% respectively.

Returns for Santos investors over the past 12 months are seen on the chart below.

TradingView Chart

Are Santos shares still worth buying?

Santos recently delivered an impressive set of results that saw free cash flow expand alongside net profit after tax (NPAT).

However, the market overlooked this with impatience growing on the oil and gas giant's pace of promised asset sell-downs.

Yet, Santos also trades at a relative discount to peers in the GICS Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector.

For instance, Santos trades on a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.8x. It also trades at 1.3x the book value of its equity (price-to-book (P/B) ratio).

Looking at the largest 25 names in the sector, both of these multiples are below the sector median. The median scores are 21x trailing P/E and 2.8x P/B respectively, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

As such, it could be argued that the Santos share price is still relatively cheap compared to its peers based on these two ratios. The question is, whether this discount is justified, or if the company is undervalued.

What else is there to consider?

Looking ahead, the market has given us some additional colour.

It has Santos priced at a forward P/E (next 12 months) of 13.7x, well ahead of the sector's 2x forward P/E.

This means that looking ahead, investors are expecting an above-sector result from Santos in terms of earnings and/or share price.

Aside from that, other measures of corporate value for Santos are arguably promising as well. The oil and gas giant did generate more than $1 billion in free cash flow (FCF) net of dividends in the six months to June 2022.

That's nearly double the $565 million in semi-annual FCF recorded back in December. It's also miles ahead of the $325 million in FCF recorded by June 2021.

Santos also generated a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9% at its last earnings. It also booked a return on equity (ROE) of nearly 14%. Again, both of these are above the sector median.

These certainly aren't weak numbers, hence, the company definitely isn't lagging fundamentally. The case can therefore be made for Santos based on relative valuation.

What do the experts think of the Santos share price?

Analysts covering Santos like the share price, too. At the moment, 16 out of 16 have it rated as a buy, according to Refinitiv.

This comes after UBS, Credit Suisse, and Barclay Pearce Capital each reiterated their buy ratings in late August.

The consensus price target from all brokers is $9.51 per share. This suggests there could be more upside yet to be priced in should the group be correct.

Therefore, it appears the market is looking for more than just free cash flow and profitability in Santos, and analyst sentiment is still bullish.

The Santos share price is up 20% this year to date and 29% in the past 12 months of trade.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Energy Shares

Four people on the beach leap high into the air.
Energy Shares

4 ASX uranium stocks to buy now amid an 'exceptionally positive' outlook for nuclear energy

ASX uranium stocks are trouncing the benchmark returns in these early days of 2025.

Read more »

A group of young friends are supposed to be having a rooftop party but the lights have dimmed, the energy is low, and it's a bit of a downer.
Energy Shares

Best performing ASX 200 energy shares in a sector that lost its spark in 2024

The energy sector was the weakest of all 11 market sectors in 2024.

Read more »

Multiracial happy young people stacking hands outside - University students hugging in college campus - Youth community concept with guys and girls standing together supporting each other.
Share Market News

Here's how the ASX 200 market sectors stacked up last week

The worst-performing market sector of 2024 was the best performer in the first week of 2025.

Read more »

Man with rocket wings which have flames coming out of them.
Energy Shares

Why Paladin Energy and these ASX uranium stocks are rocketing

It has been a great day for uranium investors on Friday. But why?

Read more »

A smiling miner wearing a high vis vest and yellow hardhat and working for Superior Resources does the thumbs up in front of an open pit copper mine, indicating positive news for the company's share price today following a significant copper discovery
Resources Shares

Why are ASX 200 mining shares going gangbusters on Friday?

Gold and uranium stocks are dominating the top 10 risers of the ASX 200 today.

Read more »

An oil worker in front of a pumpjack using a tablet PC.
Energy Shares

2 no-brainer ASX oil shares to buy with $1,500 right now

Morgans thinks these shares would be great options for investors wanting oil exposure.

Read more »

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Energy Shares

Are Woodside shares dirt cheap right now?

Let's see what analysts are saying about this energy giant's shares.

Read more »

A man lays on a tennis court exhausted.
Energy Shares

Why 2025 could be a slippery time for ASX 200 energy shares

2025 could be another difficult year for ASX 200 oil and gas stocks.

Read more »