Top broker predicts 50% upside for South32 share price. Here's why

Could South32 shares really rocket 50% over the next year?

| More on:
A young woman sits on her lounge looking pleasantly surprised at what she's seeing on her laptop screen as she reads about the South32 share price

Image source Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • South32 shares have had a fantastic 12 months, despite a lacklustre past few months 
  • But could the miner really rise more than 50% from here? 
  • That's the opinion of not one, but two ASX brokers... 

It's been a pleasing end to the trading week so far this Friday for the South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price.

At the time of writing, South32 shares are up a healthy 2.41% at $3.83 each. That looks pretty good against the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is also up today but only by 0.39%.

But this diversified miner has had a lacklustre few months. South32 shares remain down by almost 6% over 2022 thus far, although the company is up a far more pleasing 29.4% over the past year.

So where might this mining company be heading next?

This ASX broker rates South32 share price as a buy

Well, it's a decisive 'higher' if you ask one of ASX's most prominent brokers. As my Fool colleague James covered earlier this week, broker Morgans is currently very bullish on the South32 share price.

Morgans currently rates the miner as an add. It has a 12-month share price target of $6 on the company's shares.

If this share price target became reality, it would mean that South32 shares are heading more than 56% higher over the coming 12 months. Here's some of how Morgans justified this optimistic share price target:

S32 has transformed its portfolio by divesting South African thermal coal and acquiring an interest in Chile copper, substantially boosting group earnings quality, as well as S32's risk and ESG profile.

Unlike its peers amongst ASX-listed large-cap miners, S32 is not exposed to iron ore. Instead offering a highly diversified portfolio of base metals and metallurgical coal (with most of these metals enjoying solid price strength).

We see attractive long-term value potential in S32 from de-risking of its growth portfolio, the potential for further portfolio changes, and an earnings-linked dividend policy.

Morgans is also expecting big things from South32 when it comes to dividends. It has pencilled in a fully franked annual dividend of 28 cents per share for FY2022, which it sees rising to 35 cents per share for FY2023.

If this did turn out to be accurate, investors would enjoy forward yields of 7.25% and 9.07% on today's pricing.

Another broker who sees $6

Morgans is not the only broker licking its lips over the South32 share price today though. As we covered last month, brokers at Macquarie are also eyeing off the company "due to the company's attractive valuation, strong free cash flow generation, and positive dividend outlook".

Macquarie has an outperform rating on South32 shares, also with a share price target of $6. It's expecting even higher dividends from the miner, forecasting payments of 34.5 cents per share for FY2022 and 40.6 cents per share for FY2023.

At the current South32 share price, this ASX 200 miner has a market capitalisation of $17.75 billion, with a dividend yield of 4.36%.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Female miner in hard hat and safety vest on laptop with mining drill in background.
Resources Shares

Why this expert says it's time to sell Lynas shares

Lynas shares have come under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks.

Read more »

Business people standing at a mine site smiling.
Resources Shares

Forget Fortescue shares and buy this miner

A leading broker expects these two mining shares to trade in opposite directions.

Read more »

A mining worker wearing a white hardhat and a high vis vest stands on a platform overlooking a huge mine, thinking about what comes next.
Dividend Investing

BHP shares have fallen out of the global top 20 dividend payers. Here's why

Global dividends continue to climb.

Read more »

Miner standing in front of a vehicle at a mine site.
Resources Shares

Is the worst now over for Mineral Resources shares?

What's next for the miner?

Read more »

A miner holding a hard hat stands in the foreground of an open cut mine
Resources Shares

A close look at BHP shares. What is the mining giant's next move?

Let's take stock of what the experts think.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Short bets on Pilbara Minerals shares are declining. Is now the time to buy?

Could the trade be unwinding?

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

'I hate what I have done': Mineral Resources share price down as Ellison laments actions

Managing Director Chris Ellison says he deeply regrets the impact of his 'error of judgement'.

Read more »

A man in shirt and tie uses his mobile phone under water.
Resources Shares

The Lake Resources share price is sinking yet again. Here's why

The longer-term downtrend continues.

Read more »