Here's the good news about bear markets

The investment outlook now is better than 18 months ago, believe it or not. AMP's Dr Shane Oliver also names which assets will have the best chance for outperformance.

| More on:
A cute young girl lays on the floor with five teddy bears lying in a semicircle head to head with her as she clutches another teddy bear in one arm.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

As difficult as this year has been for ASX shares, other assets have suffered greatly too.

Whether you possess cryptocurrency, real estate, or even bonds, the chances are you've suffered losses in 2022.

Even for long-term investors, this is undoubtedly distressing.

But there is a bright side to the bear market, according to one expert.

Potential returns have actually risen in 2022

Applying some conservative assumptions, the team at AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) projected what returns would be like for ASX shares and other assets over the next five to 10 years.

And the findings were surprising.

Using this model, the return potential dipped below 5% in late 2020. But this year, in troubled times, that has risen to 7% per annum.

"This is partly due to a 1% higher medium-term inflation assumption, but the rest is due to the rise in interest rates, bond yields and yields on assets including shares over the last year," said AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver in a blog post.

"This is the silver lining to the cloud — or rather storm — that has hit investment markets."

This goes to show how a dip in ASX shares presents excellent buying opportunities.

"Bear markets are painful and are hard to predict, but they do push up the medium-term return potential of shares and so provide opportunities for investors."

It seems a minority of Australian investors are taking advantage of the current downturn.

According to research from comparison site Finder, 7% of Australians are investing "more adventurously" than they were six months ago.

According to Finder stock expert Kylie Purcell, for many younger investors, this could be their first experience of a bear market.

"Investing in shares during a market downturn can be daunting, especially for people with more aggressive portfolios or who have high-growth super funds," she said.

"[But] Warren Buffet said that it is wise for investors to be 'fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful'."

ASX shares are winners

Oliver surmised that ASX shares, due to their high dividend yields, stacked up well for the coming few years. Asian stocks were his pick for capital growth potential.

Return from bonds would remain poor and real estate would remain depressed due to rising interest rates.

He did have a caveat for his return projections.

"The main downside risk to our medium-term projections is that inflation trends even higher driving a further trend rise in interest rates, bond yields and yields on other assets (including property & infrastructure), resulting in an ongoing drag on capital growth."

Oliver implored investors to "have reasonable return expectations" for the coming period.

"Interest rates and investment yields are still historically low so [it's] unreasonable to expect sustained double-digit returns."

Investors should concentrate on acquiring investments with a certain characteristic, he added.

"Focus on assets with decent sustainable income flow as they provide confidence regarding future returns."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Investing Strategies

Three happy office workers cheer as they read about good financial news on a laptop.
Cheap Shares

These ASX 200 shares keep smashing new highs. Too late to buy?

Finding cheap shares is hard, but not impossible, right now.

Read more »

Smiling couple looking at a phone at a bargain opportunity.
Cheap Shares

I think these 2 cheap ASX shares are buys for value investors

Here’s why these ASX picks could appeal due to how cheap they are.

Read more »

A man wearing glasses and a white t-shirt pumps his fists in the air looking excited and happy about the rising OBX share price
Small Cap Shares

2 small cap ASX stocks with big price targets

Brokers have put big price targets on these small caps this month.

Read more »

Man holding out $50 and $100 notes in his hands, symbolising ex dividend.
Dividend Investing

These ASX dividend stocks offer 4% to 8% yields

Analysts are tipping these stocks as buys for income investors.

Read more »

A happy woman at her laptop punches the air, indicating a rising share price
Dividend Investing

Buy BHP and these ASX dividend shares now

Analysts think that income investors should be buying these shares.

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Dividend Investing

Why now presents an 'attractive opportunity' to buy this quality ASX 200 dividend stock

The ASX 200 dividend stock could be trading at a long-term bargain.

Read more »

Man holding out $50 and $100 notes in his hands, symbolising ex dividend.
Dividend Investing

Overinvested in ANZ shares? Here are two alternative ASX passive income options

These investments could add pleasing dividend diversification.

Read more »

Small girl giving a fist bump with a piggy bank in front of her.
ETFs

Here's why small-cap ASX ETFs are on the rise

Some are outperforming the exchange-traded funds tracking the ASX 200 and ASX 300.

Read more »