Own Santos shares? Here's why the company's international exports could come under pressure

The Australian government can force major gas producers to prioritise the domestic market over international exports during an energy crisis.

| More on:
oil and gas worker checks phone on site in front of oil and gas equipment

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Santos shares have outperformed amid soaring oil and gas prices 
  • The company could see its export revenues hit if the government pulls the ‘gas trigger’ 
  • Santos wants the energy crisis legislation amended 

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are up 2.7% in afternoon trade at $7.18 per share.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy company is among the minority of stocks in the benchmark index posting solid gains in 2022.

That's largely thanks to soaring global oil and gas prices, offering the company some heady profits on its domestic sales and international exports.

But Santos shares could come under pressure if its international exports are curtailed.

What are the concerns over the gas trigger?

You've probably heard of the gas trigger.

It's part of the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism. And it enables the government to compel the major liquid natural gas (LNG) exporters to curtail some of their exports from their Queensland plants in favour of selling into the Australian market in case of an energy crisis.

That energy crisis is now upon us, with Victoria facing a gas crunch through the end of September. And as The Australian reports, the Gladstone LNG project – controlled by Santos alongside its partners Petronas, Total and Kogas ­– wants the emergency gas legislation amended.

Gladstone is the only LNG project that's exporting gas from the domestic market. That means unlike the LNG projects owned by the other two top producers – Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and Shell, which are both net contributors to the domestic market – Santos' project is in net deficit.

In a nutshell that means if the gas trigger is pulled, the onus may fall entirely on Gladstone to sell extra gas into the Aussie market to stave off an energy crisis.

Though Santos has yet to comment, The Australian reported on sources indicating Santos' Gladstone LNG project wants the net contributor part of the gas trigger abolished, as it doesn't account for the fact its gas has already been contracted to overseas customers.

The energy security mechanism was slated to end in December this year, but Resources Minister Madeleine King said earlier this month that it will be extended to 2030.

How have Santos shares been performing?

Over the past 12 months, Santos shares have handily outperformed the benchmark, gaining 11% while the ASX 200 has fallen 8%.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Energy Shares

An oil worker in front of a pumpjack using a tablet.
Energy Shares

Top 5 ASX 200 energy shares of FY25 amid a challenging year for sector

The energy sector was the weakest of the 11 market sectors in FY25.

Read more »

An oil worker on a tablet with an oil rig in the background.
Energy Shares

Buying Woodside shares? Here's the latest oil price forecast from Goldman Sachs

Here’s what Goldman Sachs is forecasting for the oil price in the year ahead.

Read more »

Natural gas plant engineer using a laptop.
Energy Shares

Santos share price pushes higher amid big Asian news

ASX investors are bidding up Santos shares on Friday.

Read more »

a man and his small son crouch in a green field under a beautiful sunset sky looking at renewable, wind generators for energy production.
Energy Shares

Non-oil energy investments are on the rise: Here are 2 to consider

Australian investors are turning their attention to non-oil energy stocks poised for growth.

Read more »

Oil rig worker standing with a clipboard.
Energy Shares

How much upside does Macquarie tip for Woodside shares?

With shares up 23% since April, here’s Macquarie’s 12-month forecast for the Woodside share price.

Read more »

A male oil and gas mechanic wearing a white hardhat walks along a steel platform above a series of gas pipes in a gas plant.
Energy Shares

Should I buy Santos shares today amid the ongoing $30 billion takeover offer?

With the $30 billion Santos takeover offer not yet finalised, should you buy shares right now?

Read more »

Workers inspecting a gas pipeline.
Broker Notes

What's Macquarie's price target for Origin Energy shares?

Could Origin be primed for a turnaround?

Read more »

Man holding out Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Dividend Investing

With an 8% dividend yield, should I buy Woodside shares for their passive income?

A leading expert offers his take on Woodside shares and the passive income on offer.

Read more »