Own Macquarie shares? Here's what to expect from its Q1 update

Macquarie is expected to release its first quarter update later this week…

| More on:
A man in a suit looks serious while discussing business dealings with a couple as they sit around a computer at a desk in a bank home lending scenario.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price will be one to watch later this week.

On Thursday morning, the investment bank is holding its annual general meeting and, traditionally, it releases its first quarter update ahead of the event.

What is expected from Macquarie during the first quarter?

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts are expecting another strong quarter from the investment bank. Its analysts are forecasting a first quarter net profit of approximately $1 billion.

However, Citi has warned investors that the following quarters may not be as positive given the very strong comparable periods that they will be cycling and potential headwinds. Citi explained:

MQG is due to present a quarterly update at its upcoming AGM, which we forecast at NPAT of ~$1bn. While we see little risk around upcoming quarters, we do however see greater uncertainty emerging regarding quarters thereafter.

MQG needs to cycle record quarters in 3Q23 and 4Q23. Volatility is likely to remain elevated, but commodities remains overleveraged to a number of 'crises' while volatility and accelerating rates will start to weigh on deal flow (asset gains and M&A advisory revenues).

In light of this, the broker has retained its neutral rating with a $187.00 price target. Its analysts added:

While there is much talk of a 'cycle' in the market, MQG forward earnings forecasts appear extremely resilient to a tightening of financial conditions and see record earnings plateauing out to FY25. With record tightening underway and a vastly more cyclical business than 5 years ago, we see potential downside risk emerging through the year. We stay Neutral given mid-cycle value, but see risk of consensus revisions.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Financial Shares

2 rising ASX financial shares with 'meaningful upside' still left: fundie

Financials outperformed every other sector in FY25, but there are still buying opportunities left, say these experts.

Read more »

Frustrated and shocked business woman reading bad news online from phone.
Financial Shares

Macquarie shares sink 5% on Q1 update

The investment bank is having a tough start to the year.

Read more »

A man holds his baby on his lap at the dining room table while he looks at his laptop screen earnestly.
Financial Shares

After its result, does Macquarie rate AMP shares a buy, hold or sell?

The financial services company released a strong second-quarter update on Monday.

Read more »

A blockchain investor sits at his desk with a laptop computer open and a phone checking information from a booklet in a home office setting.
Broker Notes

Are non-bank lenders a lucrative alternative to the big 4 banks?

The big 4 banks are widely perceived as being fully valued or overvalued.

Read more »

Red sell button on an Apple keyboard.
Financial Shares

ASX 200 financials was the best sector of FY25. But it's time to sell these 2 stocks, say experts

The ASX 200 financials sector gave investors a near-30% total return in the 2025 financial year.

Read more »

Happy woman working on a laptop.
Financial Shares

AMP share price jumps on strong Q2 update

Let's see what the financial services company reported for the quarter.

Read more »

A woman holds up hands to compare two things with question marks above her hands.
Financial Shares

The pros and cons of buying IAG shares this month

Is this the right time to invest in the insurance giant?

Read more »

man analysing share price
Financial Shares

ASX 200 financial services rivalry: Should I buy Hub24 or Netwealth shares?

Let's compare the pair.

Read more »