The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price is down 3.5% over the past 24 hours.
The world's top crypto by market cap is currently trading for US$21,112 (AU$30,283).
This comes after the Bitcoin price topped 30-day highs just last Thursday when the token traded for US$24,196, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
With the latest drop factored in, Bitcoin is now down 56% in 2022, temporarily diminishing hopes of a new, sustained price rally.
Image source: Getty Images
What needs to happen for a sustained Bitcoin price rally?
Almost every crypto – save those stablecoins that didn't meltdown – have traded closely in line with share markets in 2022. Particularly higher risk assets.
This year's crypto fire sale has mirrored (and magnified) the 26% year-to-date losses posted by the tech-heavy NASDAQ.
While cryptos' correlation to stock markets may eventually come uncoupled, it's not one of the factors analysts are waiting for to see a sustained rally in the Bitcoin price.
Instead, one of the requirements is an easing of the US Federal Reserve's current path of aggressive tightening.
As market analyst at eToro Josh Gilbert pointed out, that will only happen once inflation figures in the world's largest economy come down.
According to Gilbert:
Crypto asset prices have rallied off their June lows, following equities higher as investors become more comfortable with the economic growth outlook. But markets are not yet out of the woods and need to see a clear fall in US inflation for this bear market rally to become sustainable.
Chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co Matt Maley agrees that the US Fed holds one of the keys to a digital asset rally.
"Crypto is a liquidity asset right now, so as long as the Fed is tightening, it's going to be hard for it to see a sustained rally," Maley said (courtesy of Bloomberg).
Maley added a second factor that could lead to a sustained rally in the Bitcoin price, namely confidence.
"Second, the asset class has lost a lot of confidence with investors, so it's going to take time for it to regain that confidence," he said.
