The Newcrest share price is 23% below pre-pandemic levels, what gives?

Higher US interest rates increase the haven appeal of US Treasuries and the greenback, competing with ASX gold shares.

| More on:
Miner standing at quarry looking upset

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Newcrest share price down 5% today 
  • ASX gold shares have come under pressure amid fast rising interest rates 
  • Recession concerns have hit most commodity stocks 

The Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) share price is sliding hard today, down 4.6% in late morning trade.

Newcrest shares closed Friday at $23.04 and are currently trading for $22.01.

But it's not just the Newcrest share price under pressure.

Most of the ASX gold producers are deep in the red, as witnessed by the 6.9% intraday losses posted by the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD). Meanwhile, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up 1.7%.

With today's losses factored in, the Newcrest share price is down 23% from pre-pandemic levels, with 21 February 2020 the final pre-pandemic day of trading on the ASX.

So, what gives?

Why are ASX gold shares under pressure?

Sticking with 21 February 2020 as the final pre-pandemic day, the All Ordinaries is down 5% since that date while the All Ords Gold Index has tanked by 28%.

Looking at the gold price, the yellow metal was trading for US$1,643 per troy ounce pre-pandemic, significantly lower than the current US$1,832 per ounce.

So it looks to be more gold's fall from a peak of US$2,050 in March this year that's pressuring gold shares.

Over the past months investors have become increasingly nervous over the potential of a recession in the United States, the world's biggest economy. Those concerns have seen the prices for copper, iron ore and most industrial metals tumble.

While the gold price has held up better, the Newcrest share price and other gold stocks have faced stiff headwinds from fast rising interest rates.

Aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve has seen a stronger greenback and an uptick in yields of US Treasuries. That's of particular importance for gold stocks because both the US dollar and US government bonds are go-to haven assets in times of uncertainty. While gold, also a classic safe haven asset, doesn't pay any interest.

Newcrest share price was post-pandemic positive two months ago

The real pressure on the Newcrest share price and the broader gold sector has really only come into play over the past few months.

In fact, on 19 April this year, Newcrest shares closed at $28.84, edging out the US$28.72 per share the company closed at on 21 February 2020.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

A cool man smiles as he is draped in gold cloth and wearing gold glasses.
Gold

2 of the best ASX gold stocks to buy for 2025

Analysts think that now is a golden opportunity to buy these stocks.

Read more »

A colourfully dressed young skydiver wearing heavy gold gloves smiles and gives a thumbs up as he falls through the sky.
Gold

One ASX 200 gold stock to buy now (and one to sell!)

Not all ASX 200 gold stocks are created equal.

Read more »

A woman in a business suit sits at her desk with gold bars in each hand while she kisses one bar with her eyes closed. Her desk has another three gold bars stacked in front of her. symbolising the rising Northern Star share price
Gold

The best ASX gold stocks to buy in 2025

Here's why these could be the gold stocks to buy in the new year according to the broker.

Read more »

Gold bars on top of gold coins.
Gold

After a market beating year what can investors expect from the gold price in 2025?

Can the gold price repeat its stellar performance in 2025?

Read more »

miner giving 'ok' sign in front of mine
Gold

Own Newmont shares? You could be in for a lucrative 2025

This expert is expecting big things from Newmont in 2025.

Read more »

Gold nugget with a red arrow going down.
Gold

After plunging 25%, is this ASX gold stock now cheap?

Let's dive in and see.

Read more »

Gold spelt out in gold block letters.
Gold

Will 2025 shine bright for ASX gold shares?

Will it be a golden year?

Read more »

Three people with gold streamers celebrate good news.
Gold

3 reasons to buy Northern Star shares now

This expert forecasts more gains to come from Northern Star shares in 2025.

Read more »