Down 45%, here's 1 reason to buy Tesla's dip and 2 reasons to stay away

Does the market have it all wrong with Tesla? Here's what investors need to know before buying shares of the EV king today.

| More on:
A woman in jeans and a casual jumper leans on her car and looks seriously at her mobile phone while her vehicle is charged at an electic vehicle recharging station.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock has been underwater in recent memory. Shares of the electric vehicle (EV) giant have been down 45% since the start of 2022. This has led to very polarizing views of the stock, with the bulls insisting that now is the perfect buying opportunity and the bears alleging that the sell-off has just begun.

As many different factors continue to affect the stock market, it'll be extremely interesting to watch the next few months pan out. Will Tesla bounce back in the second half of the year, or is the Elon Musk-led business bound for darker days?

Here is one reason to pull the trigger on the EV stock and two reasons to look the other way for now.

Buy Tesla because business has never been better

Don't get it twisted -- the EV leader's business is thriving today. In the first quarter of 2022, total revenues soared 81% year over year to $18.8 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) crushed Wall Street estimates by 42%, surging 246% to $3.22.

To put the cherry on top, its business is becoming increasingly profitable, with its GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) operating margin expanding 1,349 basis points year over year to 19.2%. Although supply chain bottlenecks persisted in disrupting the industry as a whole, production and deliveries still grew at a rapid clip. Total production climbed 69% to 305,407, and total deliveries rose 68% to 310,048.

If Wall Street analysts are on par with their assumptions, then the next two years appear bright for the EV juggernaut. In fiscal 2022, analysts project total sales and adjusted earnings per share to grow 59% and 79% year over year, up to $85.6 billion and $12.11, respectively.

Next year, the company is projected to expand its top line by 36% to $116.4 billion, and its bottom line is estimated to increase 32% to $15.95 per share. Combine these surefire growth rates with Tesla's $17.5 billion in cash on its balance sheet and $2.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF) generation in Q1, and investors can be confident about the company's business trajectory moving forward.

Keep your distance because of macro conditions and valuation

Before buying shares of the EV leader, there are several pitfalls to be aware of. For starters, the current economic backdrop does not offer an ideal scenario. Record-high inflation has caused the company to increase its car prices across the board, making them less affordable than before.

Likewise, supply chain restraints are expected to limit production for the foreseeable future, and there's always potential for more factory shutdowns if COVID is to get out of hand. Coupled with the war in Ukraine, which has added just another layer of pressure on the stock market, and CEO Elon Musk's latest Twitter-related headlines and it's clear that there are many moving parts that could weigh down Tesla stock in the coming days. 

Despite its latest pullback, the EV stock still isn't trading at an optimal valuation. Tesla's price-to-sales and price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples are the lowest they have ever been but the story changes when comparing its valuation to other automobile manufacturers. Today, the EV king is trading at 53.8 times forward earnings, representing a huge premium to traditional car makers Ford and General Motors, which currently peg forward price-to-earnings multiples of 6.3 and 4.8, respectively. Thus, it looks like those who want a piece of Tesla's growth story will have to pay a rich price for the stock today.

Long-term investors should jump on Tesla today

It's never a good idea to try to time the stock market. It's certainly a possibility that near-term headwinds push Tesla's stock price lower in upcoming trading sessions, but the company's fresh pullback presents investors with a unique buying opportunity.

And while it's true that the stock trades at towering valuation multiples compared to traditional auto companies, it's important to remember that Tesla enjoys superior growth rates and exceptional commercial prospects in the long run. Plus, the stock has historically been successful in growing into its lofty valuation levels, and I don't think that'll change in the years to follow. Investors should cash in on the market's madness today by accumulating shares of the world's number-one EV enterprise.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Luke Meindl has positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Tesla and Twitter. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on International Stock News

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
International Stock News

Why Alphabet stock was sliding today

Let's take a look.

Read more »

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
International Stock News

Nvidia's stock was down despite its amazing earnings. Here's what history says is coming next

Although it might seem to defy logic, it's not an uncommon phenomenon.

Read more »

A woman holds a soldering tool as she sits in front of a computer screen while working on the manufacturing of technology equipment in a laboratory environment.
International Stock News

Nvidia share price slips despite 94% revenue growth

Q3 earnings beat expectations, but what about guidance?

Read more »

high, climbing, record high
International Stock News

Could the S&P 500 Index hit 6,500 by the end of 2025?

Could the index climb higher?

Read more »

a small child holds his chin with his head on the side in a serious thinking pose against a background of graphic question marks and a yellow lightbulb.
International Stock News

Is it too late to buy Nvidia shares?

Is Nvidia stock a buy ahead of its third-quarter earnings report tomorrow?

Read more »

a group of people stand examining a large glowing cystral ball held in the hands of one of the group members while the others regard it with various expressions of wonder, curiousity and scepticism.
International Stock News

Here's what to expect from Nvidia on November 20

Can Nvidia score another win?

Read more »

Two people lazing in deck chairs on a beautiful sandy beach through their hands up in the air.
International Stock News

2 no-brainer Warren Buffett stocks to buy right now

While replicating Buffett's success isn't possible, there are a handful of his investments that are no-brainer buys.

Read more »

A man with a beard and wearing dark sunglasses and a beanie head covering raises a fist in happy celebration as he sits at is computer in a home environment.
International Stock News

3 reasons to buy Nvidia stock before November 20

This week marks a big moment for tech investors as perhaps the most anticipated earnings of the year will be…

Read more »