The ASX 200 share ready to bounce from 10-year lows: expert

This stock has been a poor performer even for long-term investors. But the ducks are now lining up for a valuation surge, reckons one analyst.

| More on:
a man in a business suit rides a graphic image of an arrow that is rebounding after hitting the low point on a grid pattern that serves as a background to the image.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Regular readers will know long-term buy and hold is the philosophy espoused at The Motley Fool.

But of course, this doesn't mean that every stock you hold for the long run will end up a winner.

In fact, it's fantasy for both professional and amateur investors to expect all their holdings to make them money.

One example of a long-term stinker is Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG).

The share price for this insurance giant has halved in the past 3 years. In fact, it has now dipped to a level not seen since August 2012.

Yes, you could have held this stock for almost a decade and it would be back to where it started.

But one fund has suggested that the company may finally be ready to break out of the slump:

'Significant share price upside from current levels'

WAM Leaders Ltd (ASX: WLE) analyst Anna Milne told clients in a memo that it's no wonder IAG has had a tough time of late.

"It has been a difficult few years for IAG, given the bushfire season in late 2019, the onset of coronavirus and resultant business interruption claims currently being disputed, and more recently, the severe flooding in New South Wales and Queensland this year."

But macroeconomics is finally lining up to favour insurers, who enjoy higher returns on their capital when interest rates rise.

"In what is an extremely volatile environment, the insurance sector provides defensive characteristics at below market valuations," Milne said.

"This, combined with compelling fundamentals and cautious market sentiment, suggests significant share price upside from current levels."

And IAG will be no exception, the Wilson team feels.

"IAG's share price is at close to 10-year lows and we believe it is poised to break out of this trough over the coming months," said Milne.

"Underlying business momentum is starting to show, with premium rate hikes continuing to outpace claims while inflation pressures and higher bond yields further supporting earnings."

There is also potential release of a $1.2 billion provision previously set aside for business interruption claims.

There's some agreement with Wilson among the wider professional community.

According to CMC Markets, six out of 10 analysts are rating IAG shares as a strong buy. One out of the remaining four recommend it as a moderate buy.

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Insurance Australia Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

A woman sits on a chair smiling as she shops online.
Financial Shares

Zip or Block shares: Which is the more profitable company?

We've crunched the numbers.

Read more »

A man holds his head as he looks at his laptop and contemplates more bills to pay.
Financial Shares

Down 19%! Is the GQG share price selloff an overreaction and buying opportunity?

Is now the time to pounce on this beaten down stock? Let's see what Goldman Sachs is saying.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Financial Shares

IAG share price reaches new 5-year high! What next?

It’s been a great period for the insurance giant. Could it keep rising?

Read more »

Shot of a young businesswoman looking stressed out while working in an office.
Financial Shares

This $7 billion ASX 200 stock just crashed 11%. What's going on?

There's trouble in India and it's weighing on this stock today.

Read more »

A happy male investor turns around on his chair to look at a friend while a laptop runs on his desk showing share price movements
Financial Shares

Here's what this top broker is saying about Macquarie shares

Is this investment bank heading to a new record high?

Read more »

A smiling businessman in the city looks at his phone and punches the air in celebration of good news.
Financial Shares

Up 25% in a year, why this ASX All Ords stock has 'plenty more upside'

Analysts think this stock could still have plenty of gas left in its tank.

Read more »

Two people climb to the summit and raise their arms in success as the sun rises brightly over the mountains.
Financial Shares

'Strong momentum': 2 ASX financial shares backed by top fundie for 2025

ASX financial shares had a strong trading session on Tuesday with several new price records set.

Read more »

A woman presenting company news to investors looks back at the camera and smiles.
Financial Shares

AMP shares on radar as M&A spotlight shines bright

The stock has rallied hard in 2024.

Read more »